When the war in Gaza comes to an end, and the Israeli revenge machine against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank stops—which it inevitably will—there will be a need for the dust of war to settle. Once the Palestinians comprehend the magnitude and severity of Hamas's bravado over the ruins of civilians, once their displays take place atop the rubble of destroyed cities, and once Yahya Sinwar's speeches, proclaiming victory in the name of the Iranian resistance axis, resonate, the suffering Palestinian will stand as a bystander, anguish gripping him as he gathers the remains of his dead and extends a hand pleading for humanitarian aid and a morsel to appease his hunger, and for a safe haven. At that point, not a stone will remain upon another in Gaza.
However, if there is a glimmer of hope in this grim picture, it must be highlighted that there has been significant development regarding the two-state solution, which now enjoys unparalleled international support and clarity of vision from President Biden's administration regarding the strategic proposal put forth by the Saudi leadership a year ago to resolve regional conditions in favor of the axis of prosperity based on addressing the central issue: the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. This proposal continues the historical offer made by Saudi Arabia, known as the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002. Today, Saudi Arabia, through its leadership of Arab and international efforts, seeks to rally consensus to realize the Palestinians' right to an independent state while simultaneously achieving peace for all parties, including Israel, dismantling the cycle of violence and terrorism, and building a beneficial regional integration.
In recent weeks, many newspapers and platforms have discussed the developments in the administration's vision for the day after the war, which has witnessed numerous shifts under the influence of the fluid situation in the Middle East and the unprecedented threat to the United States' standing internationally. Thomas Friedman, in a piece published on January 31 in the New York Times titled “Biden’s Doctrine for the Middle East is Taking Shape and It’s Big,” explored the administration's vision. Various opinion writers have analyzed President Biden's approach to two threats: the destructive Iranian threat on one hand, and the extreme right Israeli threat beholden to settlers on the other.
### The Need for a Doctrine or Salvation?
President Biden has frequently bragged about his exceptional relations with Israel, which he believes surpass any connections that Israel and its politicians or lobbyists have had with American leaders. In a previous statement as Vice President during the Obama administration, at an annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Biden expressed pride in having raised substantial funds for his electoral campaigns from the Jewish lobby, more than some of his listeners might have. Observers can clearly see President Biden's strong ties to Israel based on the administration’s performance since the onset of the war on Gaza; some have even noted that he has overestimated his influence on Netanyahu.
Conversely, Netanyahu has not hidden his overconfidence in his capacity to manipulate the American stance. In earlier statements to a group of settlers in the West Bank, he asserted, “America can be directed in the right way and will never trouble us.” From this perspective, Netanyahu has ignored American advice since the first day of the war regarding human rights violations and protecting civilians in Gaza, instead leaning into support for statements from his extremist ministers who have called for “a second Nakba,” and pushing for Gaza’s Palestinians to emigrate to Egypt and other countries.
The Gaza war has harmed America's credibility in the Middle East and worldwide, casting a dark shadow over a different war occurring in Ukraine. Domestically, the administration's position has significantly weakened President Biden's chances for a second term in the White House in 2024. His popularity has noticeably declined to 40 percent, according to a recent poll in December, where 70 percent of young participants under 24 years old disapproved of the White House's policy regarding the war in Gaza, collapsing his popularity among this demographic to 31 percent. Additionally, Arab Americans have confirmed they will not vote for Biden in the 2024 elections, alongside Black Americans who are likely to lean the same way given their historical support for the Palestinian cause.
Given the delicate situation the current administration faces on both internal and international levels, and attempting to restore Biden's declining popularity as they enter a critical election year, presenting him as a strong man against the Republican campaign led by Trump—which focuses on the president's perceived weakness—sources close to the White House have begun discussing Biden's doctrine for the Middle East. Is this an attempt to flip the narrative and rekindle Biden's domestic support base in preparation for what could be one of the fiercest electoral battles in American history? The question remains, is there enough time to accomplish all of this?
### Timing and Opportunities for the Doctrine
The components of the doctrine presented by Thomas Friedman indicate that if consensus is reached to succeed in its components, it could represent the largest American initiative for Middle East peace since Camp David in 1979. It forms a complementary triangle, where no one aspect can function without the other two. It addresses Israel, an independent Palestinian state, Iran and its proxies, and Saudi Arabia and its pivotal role.
In summary, the doctrine offers American commitments to take a strong and firm stance against Iran, including escalating military responses against its proxies in the region. It proposes an unprecedented diplomatic initiative to promote the establishment of a Palestinian state, including moving towards some form of American recognition of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. This state would only come into existence after the Palestinians develop a set of credible institutions and security capabilities to ensure the state is viable and unable to threaten Israel. Furthermore, it envisions building an expanded security alliance with Saudi Arabia that might also include normalizing relations with Israel, contingent upon the Israeli government’s readiness to embrace a diplomatic process leading to the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state led by a revamped Palestinian Authority.
The doctrine gathers historical cumulative contracts that ultimately rely on Israel's willingness to engage in shared interests and mutual concessions, colliding with the extreme right Israeli opposition led by Netanyahu to halt the war, as well as ignoring the existence of the Palestinian National Authority as a partner in land and destiny. Israel and its current leadership are paying a political, military, and moral price, especially in light of international solidarity with the rights of the Palestinian people, as evidenced by a ruling from the International Court of Justice against the racially charged narrative surrounding the destruction of Gaza and the expulsion of its inhabitants.
The war with Iran through its Arab proxies intensifies and threatens to destabilize the region, while Iran rejects Biden's doctrine in favor of imposing its own Khomeinist creed for strategically removing American influence from the region and asserting its regional dominance. Certain elements of Biden’s doctrine appear attractive as they target the Iranian axis obstructing peace and prosperity; however, it remains impotent to rationalize the extreme right’s approach based on messianic myths that exist only in the exclusionary and aggressive imagination of settlers. It has become urgent for the world to unite in exposing the deception of both Iran and Netanyahu. Will Biden be able in the coming months to restore America’s prestige and standing in the Middle East and globally, to curb the aggression of the Iranian regime and its network of clients in the region, and to change the mentality of the extreme Israeli right ahead of the elections in November?
The pressing demand today at President Biden's table in the White House is to recognize an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital; thus, he would have regained America’s stature in the region and the world. This is not only an Arab and global demand but also a growing American requirement to undermine the dark Iranian project. It is a race for the administration towards the elections and to restore the president’s popularity, and a message to Netanyahu, who has often bet on his ability to bend the American position, racing against time until Biden leaves the White House, allowing everyone to forget the "doctrine" and leaving it behind. The time has come for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and this core issue should not be held hostage by media campaigns and propaganda. It has become an American interest, a regional interest, as well as an Arab and Israeli interest. Will Biden take action?
