Lebanon

Qualitative Escalation in Southern Lebanon Accompanies Threats of Response to Iranian Attack

Qualitative Escalation in Southern Lebanon Accompanies Threats of Response to Iranian Attack

The frequency of military operations between Hezbollah and the Israeli army along the borders escalated on Wednesday in an unprecedented qualitative manner. Hezbollah's response to Israeli assassinations of its leaders resulted in 18 Israelis being injured due to an attack on a newly established military center by a kamikaze drone, leading Israel to retaliate with extensive bombardments targeting several southern towns, as reported by "Asharq Al-Awsat."

This recent escalation comes amid uncertainty surrounding an anticipated Israeli military response to the Iranian attack that targeted two Israeli military bases early last Sunday, which was an Iranian reaction to the targeting of the consulate building in Damascus earlier this month. On Wednesday, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the shelling of an Israeli military command post in the Arab al-Aramsha area near the Lebanese border, facing the towns of Yarin and Al-Dhahira in the western sector. The party stated in a statement that its fighters launched a complex attack using guided missiles and kamikaze drones on a newly established Israeli command post in Arab al-Aramsha, in response to the enemy's assassination of several resistance members in Ain Baal and Al-Shahabiya. The Israeli attacks on Tuesday resulted in the deaths of four individuals, three of whom were mourned by Hezbollah, and one civilian.

Israeli medics reported on Wednesday that 18 individuals were injured in the area. Israeli media mentioned that 14 injured Israelis, including soldiers, were admitted to Nahariya Hospital, with four in critical condition following missile and drone strikes launched by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon towards an Israeli site in Arab al-Aramsha in Western Galilee. The hospital announced it was operating under a "multiple casualties level A" scenario.

In a later statement, Kan Hebrew Channel reported an increase in injuries from the operation carried out by Hezbollah in Arab al-Aramsha to 18. The Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya stated that the conditions of the injured ranged from critical to severe, with two in critical condition, four moderately injured, and the remaining injuries were minor.

This number of injuries is the highest in Israel in a single day since Hezbollah launched its support battle for the Gaza Strip from southern Lebanon on October 8. The party had often targeted its drones at military bases to hit Israeli air defense systems or artillery positions, as it states in its announcements, while it launched guided missiles at gatherings of Israeli soldiers. However, Wednesday's attack appeared to be a shift in the party's military strategy following two assassination operations conducted by Israeli aircraft on Tuesday in Ain Baal and Al-Shahabiya. The Israeli army claimed that they targeted the coastal area commander of Hezbollah's infantry and a commander responsible for the missile unit in the elite al-Ridwan force of the party. Israeli media reported that Israel has previously assassinated six command leaders of the party operating in the south.

While Israeli media spoke of the exploding drone in Arab al-Aramsha being of Iranian manufacture (Ababil-T type), the Israeli army announced that it attacked the sources from which the launches originated toward Arab al-Aramsha. It stated that warplanes struck a military building housing saboteurs affiliated with the "Hezbollah" terrorist organization in the Aita al-Shaab area in southern Lebanon. They also mentioned that during the last hour, several launches were detected crossing from Lebanese territory towards the Arab al-Aramsha area, prompting the Israeli Defense Forces to attack the fire sources.

This escalation is considered the largest qualitatively since the beginning of the war, according to observers of the bombardment path carried out by Hezbollah against Israeli targets, coinciding with international discussions with Israel regarding a possible response to Iran. The Israeli army spokesman stated that "Iran will not escape punishment."

However, the course of the war in southern Lebanon differs from the trajectory of Israeli-Iranian tensions. Military and strategic affairs researcher Mustafa As'ad noted that Hezbollah's response was anticipated after three airstrikes led to the assassination of party officials; an event that has repeated multiple times in Lebanon, labeling the recent escalation as a dangerous development. In a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat," he referred to the extent of Israeli breaches and monitoring of the party, which prompted its groups to avoid communications, with the second strike after the first in Arab al-Aramsha targeting groups evacuating injured Israelis, raising the danger of this incident which has been documented.

He pointed out that documenting the strike through Palestinians in the area and broadcasting the images grants the party a media victory that surpasses merely a military victory, which caused Israel to respond quickly with a video of the strike on Aita al-Shaab. As'ad does not see the Israeli escalation through the pursuit of party leaders as a substitute for a response to Iran, nor does he consider Hezbollah's escalation by targeting Israeli air defense systems as a deterrent to prevent Israel from striking Hezbollah instead of targeting Iran. He clarified that this ongoing war in southern Lebanon is limited, has no regional dimension, and lacks high moral value for either Tel Aviv or Tehran, meaning it will not equate to a strike against Iran, which would be different, limited, and strategically calculated, potentially targeting an Iranian technological vessel or a military facility, among others. He indicated that assassinating individuals will not serve, from the Israeli perspective, as a substitute for striking Iran, as Tel Aviv's response will be directed internally, sending a message that it retains formidable power.

Continuous Bombardments

The southern front did not quiet down throughout Wednesday, with the Al-Dhahira area and the outskirts of Alama al-Shaab, Yarin, and Marwahin subjected to intense artillery bombardment, accompanied by reconnaissance and drone flights in the skies. Israeli warplanes conducted a strike on the town of Aita al-Shaab, and the outskirts of Alama al-Shaab and Al-Dhahira were targeted with phosphorus artillery bombardment, according to Lebanese media. It also reported that warplanes carried out three consecutive strikes targeting the Hamoul area in Naqoura and the towns of Tyre Harfa and Yarin in the Tyre district, with one of the strikes targeting a two-story house belonging to the Sayyed family, which was completely destroyed.

Hezbollah had launched attacks on Israeli positions on Tuesday in response to the earlier strikes. One of the attacks near Beit Hillel resulted in three injuries, according to the local council in the area. The Israeli army also announced on Monday that four of its personnel were injured inside Lebanese territory shortly after Hezbollah declared that it detonated explosives against Israeli soldiers after they crossed the border.

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