Driven by concern for Lebanon's fate in the event of a large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, a renewed French initiative, coordinated with the Americans, comes as a preemptive measure against the escalating tensions along the southern border. This surge in tensions is exacerbated by alarming indicators of an impending Israeli military campaign aimed at ousting Hezbollah from the area south of the Litani River. Under this premise, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné discussed in Beirut an amended proposal comprising several points, which will be presented to Lebanese officials in writing in the coming days, aiming to de-escalate the situation in the south, based on adherence to the terms of Resolution 1701. Paris and Washington believe that this is the only guarantee against Israeli aggression towards Lebanon. Meanwhile, Senior U.S. Advisor Amos Hochstein was in talks with Israeli officials regarding a diplomatic path to halt cross-border fire.
According to reports, the American official proposed a new solution during his visit to Tel Aviv to achieve a diplomatic resolution that would end military escalation between Lebanon and Israel, as indicated by "Al-Liwaa." To defuse the escalating conflict in the south, it was evident that France was exerting all its efforts to reduce tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. Minister Séjourné held extensive consultations, meeting with House Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, and Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, after visiting the headquarters of UNIFIL forces in Naqoura. Simultaneously, his visit coincided with discussions held by Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani with senior Lebanese officials, focusing on the upcoming Arab summit and ensuring a security umbrella for Lebanon against Israeli attacks.
Reports suggest that the Bahraini minister carried a message of support and solidarity for Lebanon amid the difficult circumstances it faces, emphasizing Bahrain's efforts to avert the specter of war from Lebanon. The Arab summit will reaffirm its support for both the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples in confronting ongoing Israeli aggression. Information from the meetings held by Minister Séjourné indicated that he expressed his country's concerns about Lebanon's fate should confrontations in the south persist, which could lead to a broader explosion. He explained to the officials he met the main points of the amended French proposal, which his country hopes will receive a positive response from Lebanon, while simultaneously securing a commitment from the Israeli side to adhere to its contents as part of measures to reduce tensions on both sides of the border and create a conducive environment for addressing the ongoing land border issues between Lebanon and Israel. This task is managed by the Americans through the efforts being made by advisor Hochstein at the White House's directive.
While Paris is aware of the gravity of the situation in Lebanon amidst rising Israeli threats, Minister Séjourné clearly called on every party in Lebanon to assume their responsibilities, signaling the necessity to respond to Lebanese interests and support French efforts through the presented document. Here, Paris reaffirmed its rejection of the worst-case scenario in Lebanon, which is war, as stated by its Foreign Minister. Consequently, the upcoming phase will witness an intensification of ongoing French efforts to preserve Lebanon, which Séjourné noted is a priority for them and must be shielded from regional conflict. The French emphasize that the pathway to stability lies in adhering to Resolution 1701, hence the urgent necessity for establishing stability through the deployment of the Lebanese army and enhancing its presence in the south, in coordination with international forces.
Prominent Lebanese political circles have ruled out the possibility of Hezbollah agreeing to the amended French document presented by Minister Séjourné if the Israeli aggression on Gaza continues. However, leaked details about the document indicate that it calls for a cessation of military activities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, in accordance with Resolution 1701, alongside a safe return for residents of border areas on both Lebanese and Israeli sides. The French proposal also emphasizes the deployment of the Lebanese army in border areas, aiming for a total of around 15,000 troops south of the Litani River, requiring an enhancement of about 5,000 officers and soldiers with adequate equipment, in coordination and cooperation with UNIFIL forces.
It is understood that the amended French document also addresses efforts to agree upon the delineation of border points between Lebanon and Israel, having resolved seven points in Lebanon's favor, while six points remain pending, which will be handled by the Americans. Additionally, discussions will focus on securing a demilitarized zone free of Hezbollah presence extending 8 kilometers or slightly more from the southern border, while Lebanon insists on complete Israeli commitment to implement Resolution 1701, in addition to reclaiming the Kfarshouba Hills, Ghajar, and Shebaa Farms, and halting Israeli violations and assaults according to "Al-Liwaa."
