A report from the American news site "Business Insider" observed that tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a boiling point, indicating that several signs suggest the possibility of Beijing taking military action against the island within a few years. However, the report emphasized that any potential Chinese military operation would be "complex and significantly dangerous," even though Beijing views it as necessary for seizing the island. The operation includes "enhancing Chinese naval forces, energy and food supplies, and extensive military drills off the Chinese coasts."
The site quoted Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asian Engagement Program at the Defense Priorities organization, stating, "I don't think they lack anything they need, and we can always ask what they can do to be better prepared." He added, "I have long insisted that the Chinese have what it needs to conduct a military campaign against Taiwan."
"Business Insider" revealed that China has rapidly upgraded its armed forces over the past two decades, raising concerns among U.S. military officials and providing options for Chinese leader Xi Jinping regarding how to reunify Taiwan, the democratic island with a population of 24 million that Beijing considers a breakaway territory. For instance, the Chinese navy has surpassed the size of the U.S. fleet, and China's shipbuilding capacity is the largest in the world. However, the report notes questions about the quality of warships despite their large numbers and whether they possess the capability to launch an amphibious assault against Taiwan's advanced weaponry.
In 2021, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense estimated that China "lacks the landing vehicles and logistical services necessary to carry out an incursion into Taiwan," a view largely echoed by the U.S. Department of Defense, which noted something similar in its 2020 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. According to the review, China suffers from a "lack of amphibious lift, or ships and aircraft capable of transporting troops" and seizing the island.
The site suggests that the Chinese ships and aircraft attempting to invade the island, or to blockade it to force its surrender, would be heavily exposed to Taiwan’s arsenal of advanced weapons, such as F-16 fighter jets, Patriot missile batteries, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The report raised questions about whether China has built an invasion force capable of withstanding damage from these weapons in what could be the first amphibious invasion in seven decades.
