Former minister and head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Franjieh, has expressed a view that deviates from previously common political terminology, moving from the current presidential candidacy arena to an electoral competitiveness idea between himself and the strongest Christian figure, Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces. This shift follows Franjieh's political focus on the Free Patriotic Movement, which had previously suggested that the most widely representative figure among Christians should be the president. According to Franjieh, Geagea should be the candidate of the Free Patriotic Movement if it continues to adhere to this theory.
Quickly, the political street interpreted Franjieh's statement as not far from strategic maneuvers aimed at narrowing the role of the Free Patriotic Movement. This sentiment emerged within the Lebanese Forces, which kept Franjieh's remarks confined to this political sphere. Despite expressions of welcome and gratitude from some within the Forces for such a proposition if political factions commit to the electoral equation proposed by Franjieh, they acknowledged it was not a realistic idea on the presidential election table, although logical; it could not be effectively materialized.
Questions arose within the Lebanese Forces: if Hezbollah does not relinquish its sole candidacy for a third candidate so far, can it face the strongest Christian candidate in the presidential election? Recent parliamentary electoral statistics indicate that Samir Geagea is considered the strongest Christian figure, having secured 186,046 votes in purely Christian polling stations and 45,327 in mixed polling stations during the 2022 parliamentary elections. In contrast, the Free Patriotic Movement received 121,425 votes in purely Christian stations and 31,397 in mixed stations, according to researcher Kamal Fghali’s studies.
The Marada Movement garnered 22,315 votes in purely Christian stations and 5,030 in mixed ones. The Kataeb Party gained 75,022 votes in Christian stations and 7,938 in mixed. Meanwhile, the Change Bloc obtained 85,288 votes in Christian and 52,931 in mixed polling stations. Thus, according to the statistics, 33.3% of Christian voters in purely Christian stations voted for the Lebanese Forces, 21.8% for the Free Patriotic Movement, 4% for the Marada candidates, 13.4% for the Kataeb, and 15.3% for the Change Bloc.
A tweet from Melhem Riachi, a member of the Strong Republic bloc, served as the initial Lebanese Forces' response to Franjieh's remarks, affirming that his words deserve attention and consideration. When asked about the sentiment within the Forces regarding Franjieh's statement, MP Said Asmar, in a conversation with "An-Nahar," confirmed that the Lebanese Forces are more than welcoming if political factions are willing to commit to the competitive electoral equation proposed by the head of the Marada Movement. However, he pointed out that it remains an idea that does not extend beyond an attempt to corner Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Gebran Bassil politically.
He stated that if the Free Patriotic Movement is offered incentives at both ministerial and administrative levels, and even at the presidential level, its natural position would align with the resistance axis, making the political battle for opposing forces continue until the end. The Lebanese Forces are prepared for various forms of cooperation, dialogue, and consultation within legal frameworks, as the constitution prevails over everything, making their battle aimed at achieving a presidency that aligns with Lebanese aspirations.
Asmar added that, practically speaking, the Hezbollah axis does not agree on electing Samir Geagea as president because he is the strongest Christian candidate. If the terms of the agreement reached under duress in Bkerke are to be followed, then Samir Geagea is currently the strongest Christian candidate for the presidency, with the Lebanese Forces favoring his election as the suitable person to rescue the country from its crisis, especially after the presidency remained with the resistance axis for successive terms, leading the country to its current state.
In Asmar’s conclusion, the political realities in Lebanon indicate that Hezbollah will not concede its sole candidate, Sleiman Franjieh, for the presidency. He questioned whether Hezbollah could engage in competitive equations with the strongest candidate, Samir Geagea, stating that what is occurring aims to encourage the Free Patriotic Movement to pursue the presidential proposition aligned with the resistance axis. Although the Lebanese Forces believe they deserve the presidency, they do not hesitate to make concessions for a president capable of working together to move Lebanon to a different phase, while the Lebanese Forces insist on the exclusivity of arms and border control. Despite the Lebanese Forces agreeing to give up certain presidential candidates to discuss the idea of a third candidate, the rigidity of the resistance axis in maintaining a single candidate remains unchanged, with Hezbollah waiting for regional developments, as stated by "An-Nahar."
