What is clear from the visit of the U.S. envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, is his recognition of Hezbollah's equation linking the Lebanese front with that of Gaza. Hochstein may have come to Beirut with two perspectives: one being his own and the realistic stance of the U.S. administration, which does not indicate a separation between the Lebanese and Gaza fronts, and the other reflecting what he learned from the Israelis regarding messages of threat and warning. According to sources mentioned in "Al-Mudun," he conveyed that if Hezbollah does not agree to the diplomatic deal to cease escalation, war would be the only option.
From Rafah to Lebanon
According to tracking sources, Hochstein delivered clear threats, with some describing it as the last attempt and indicating that the situation is not good and can no longer be tolerated. They reported that if swift arrangements are not made, conditions will deteriorate significantly. Hochstein stated in meetings, according to sources: "The Lebanese must be responsive, especially as the Rafah battle is nearing its end, which will lead to escalation in Lebanon." He emphasized this several times, indicating the end of the Rafah battle, and that time would betray everyone, at which point no one would be able to do anything. He focused on the role of the army in the south after arrangements, stressing the need for necessary financial, military, and logistical support to expand and bolster deployment, build new centers, and accommodate new personnel.
He confirmed the presence of an imminent danger, especially during the last two weeks. For this reason, the U.S. president sent him to stir stagnant waters and renew obligations to avoid expanding confrontations or transforming them into war. He mentioned that progress has been made towards reaching an agreement regarding Gaza, with Egypt and Qatar agreeing to the deal and working with Hamas for their final approval. In this context, Lebanon is expected to continue de-escalation to prevent the expansion of operations.
Party Position
In contrast, President Berri stated that Hezbollah adheres to the rules of engagement, while the Israelis are the ones violating these rules and continuing their threats. Sources close to the Speaker confirm that Hochstein is aware of the connection between the front in Lebanon and the situation in Gaza, emphasizing that Gaza is the key to the solution. Therefore, he stressed the need to reduce confrontations before discussing the program he had previously proposed, concerning the return of residents on both sides, the withdrawal of armed manifestations, and initiating the land demarcation process.
The data confirms that detailed discussions on these points did not open during this visit, as their terms are known and have been previously discussed. The basis for discussion is entering a ceasefire phase, after which the discourse on all those points can resume. Sources close to Hezbollah indicate that if there is a threat against Hezbollah with war to end the confrontation, it will not change the party's stance. For Hezbollah, stopping the confrontation in Lebanon is linked to stopping the war on Gaza. The serious military capabilities of Hezbollah are sufficient to deter any large-scale Israeli escalation against the party and Lebanon, and there would be no interest for the Israelis in escalating further. They will not be able to engage in a comprehensive confrontation, as all discussions regarding agreements and arrangements related to the south are tied to a ceasefire in Gaza or a long-term truce or stability.
Existential War?
Sources close to Hezbollah claim that Hochstein is aware of the party's position and is certain of his inability to change it. Thus, he wants his visit to prevent escalations in the south or their expansion, as long as the war in Gaza continues. Just as Israel views its war as an existential one, Hezbollah perceives it similarly. Despite the difficult situation, the losses and the scale of sacrifices and martyrs do not lead to changing the realities on the ground.
In this context, diplomatic sources indicate that the U.S. administration seeks to establish a comprehensive and rapid deal regarding Gaza, Lebanon, the Red Sea, and Yemen. This deal must involve Iran through open channels. Therefore, Washington is exerting all its power to achieve this and to convince the Israelis of it, leading to U.S.-Israeli discrepancies reflected in a statement from the White House spokesperson saying, "After Benny Gantz's resignation, Netanyahu has few options left." This statement clearly indicates the extent of the American disagreement with Netanyahu and the attempts by Americans to contain him internally within Israel. This was also evident in the conflict between Netanyahu and the Israeli army over the tactical cessation of combat for a few hours daily in Gaza, which the Prime Minister rejected. Sources emphasize that the Americans are pressuring Netanyahu again from within the Likud party to weaken him and his position according to "Al-Mudun."
