A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggesting that global oil consumption could peak by 2029, if oil production continues to increase from the United States and other non-OPEC countries, has garnered significant attention in the oil media. This report indicates that starting in 2030, a surplus in oil markets will negatively impact oil prices. In response, OPEC's Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais quickly dismissed the agency's claims, arguing that they serve the interests of Western industrialized nations and diverge significantly from OPEC's expectations.
The agency's forecast is part of ongoing efforts during an energy transition that aims to gradually phase out oil and gas, rather than focusing on reducing hydrocarbon emissions. This transition faces numerous geopolitical challenges to meet its objectives. For instance, instead of encouraging renewable energy industries to reduce emissions, the focus has shifted to undermining the oil industry. Europe, for example, is now interested in increasing tariffs on electric cars imported from China. European taxes on these vehicles are expected to rise, especially following the election of far-right parties that adopted clear stances against environmental policies, as recently evidenced by their support for farmers' protests against such policies.
The situation is similar in the United States, where legislation is being passed to increase tariffs on imported solar panels from China, alongside restrictions on oil companies regarding exploration and production on federal lands or certain offshore areas. Furthermore, with the upcoming presidential elections, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House recalls his earlier decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change.
In his article, Secretary-General Al Ghais cautioned against jeopardizing the present in the name of saving the future, elaborating on the risks the global economy and society would face without oil. He emphasized OPEC's studies and forecasts regarding future supply and demand for oil, which differ from those of the IEA. Al Ghais affirmed that the peak of oil is not within OPEC's forecasts, describing the IEA's comments as "dangerous" and not based on facts, which will only lead to unprecedented energy volatility.
He stated, "Of course, everyone wants to see a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. OPEC believes that technological solutions and efficiency improvements can play a crucial role. The oil industry is already active in this regard." It is noteworthy that sustainable energy alternatives have not yet been able to replace hydrocarbon energy, despite approximately $9.5 trillion invested in sustainable industries over the past two decades. Despite the expansion of the solar and wind industries over the years, they collectively account for no more than 4% of the global energy mix, while electric vehicles represent only about 3% of the total vehicles on the roads.
At the same time, according to Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, speaking at the recent "CERAWeek" conference, the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix has ranged from 80% to 83% over the first two decades of this century. Additionally, global oil demand over the past two decades has exceeded 100 million barrels per day, recording its highest rates this year.
