The ongoing regional confrontation in Gaza and its extension to allied countries raises significant questions about Israel's capacity to destroy Iranian-affiliated factions in the region, especially Hezbollah. It is evident today that Israel cannot completely eradicate Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shiite organization with substantial popular support in southern Lebanon and a considerable influence in Lebanese politics and the broader region. Israel may be able to damage Hezbollah's infrastructure and military capabilities, but it will not be able to eliminate it entirely.
Diplomatic movements have resumed between Tel Aviv and Beirut to prevent escalation between the two sides and avoid turning Lebanon into another Gaza, as warned by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Beirut yesterday for a brief visit to meet with officials and indicated that "the situation along the Blue Line is delicate and dangers are present." She also pointed out the risks of an "impending violent escalation." Meanwhile, military and strategic researcher Mustafa Asaad expressed to "Al Arabiya.net" that confrontations are heading towards escalation, stating, "We will witness intense exchanges of confrontations more than what is happening now, and Hezbollah may initiate an attack on the upper Galilee as a preemptive move, even if they later lose it." Asaad further noted that diplomatic efforts have so far failed to stop the escalation, describing them as akin to folkloric movements. He added that the American side wants to at least maintain the confrontations as they are without further expansion, aiming to facilitate the upcoming presidential election, but it seems they will not succeed in that regard, according to his assessment.
In the context of precaution, it was revealed that all embassies in Lebanon have reduced their number of employees in anticipation of any serious scenario in the south, and have established evacuation offices and sites in several places across the country, comprising civilian and military personnel tasked with ensuring the quick and immediate evacuation of embassy staff the moment war breaks out in the south.
In parallel, Asaad pointed out that "the Israeli side continues its preparations for a northern battle after realizing that the war in Gaza is difficult," while Hezbollah might preempt a broader war by risking a strike within Israeli territory by sending hundreds of elements to one area, although this adventure will not last long; however, it will achieve its moral and media objectives for the party after Israel retaliates violently against Lebanon. He considered that it is in Iran's interest to attack immediately and bring an end to the war before Donald Trump returns to the White House next fall.
On the other hand, the military and strategic researcher indicated that "Tel Aviv is betting on the return of the Republicans to the White House after losing confidence in the current administration (the Democratic Party), and thus repaying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by implementing what was agreed upon, knowing that Washington will surely be alongside Israel if the war with Hezbollah expands."
For his part, American political analyst Hazem Alghabra explained that the United States does not want to see further escalation on Israel's northern front for several reasons, perhaps the most significant being that it is illogical to open a new front when Israel has not yet resolved the Gaza front nor achieved its military objectives. However, he considered that "Israel has so far succeeded in its military campaign in southern Lebanon by targeting Hezbollah leaders, officials, and elements almost daily, which is a clear intelligence penetration of the party. They have also succeeded in exerting media pressure on the Lebanese people, their government, and their economy, particularly the tourism sector, which is one of the pillars of the economy, through continuous threats." He noted that the Americans are convinced that ending the war in Gaza will positively impact the southern Lebanon front, unlike the Israelis who refuse to link the two, considering that Hezbollah's problem existed before October 7 and intensified thereafter.
Additionally, he pointed out that there is American concern about the war extending from southern Lebanon to Syria and reaching Tehran through Iraq, which would force the United States to become part of a comprehensive multi-party war. Alghabra also talked about internal Israeli pressure, particularly from residents of northern settlements, for the necessity of doing something in the north to stop rockets from falling on them and drones flying over their regions. He also considered that "the cost of closing the Gaza war and opening a war in Lebanon would be high for Israel, and the current fear is that Israel will repeat the Gaza scenario by entering a war with Hezbollah without calculated considerations."
The United States is leading efforts for calm in southern Lebanon and has sent special envoy Amos Hochstein to Tel Aviv and Beirut multiple times in an attempt to stop the escalation and establish a diplomatic solution that enables residents in border areas in the south and settlers in northern Israel to return to their homes, but failure still persists.
