The limited military confrontation between Hezbollah and Israeli forces continues along the southern Lebanese border, with mutual violations from both sides within Lebanese territory and deep inside the occupied Palestinian territories. There have been no changes to the usual rules of engagement since this confrontation began following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. Meanwhile, the mutual threats—particularly from Israel regarding an imminent and large-scale military operation against Hezbollah to forcibly change the current situation in the south—have heightened fears and anxiety among the Lebanese, who are already enduring a series of political, financial, and living crises, along with the collapse of state institutions and the seizure of its decision-making power and resources, as reported in "Al-Liwaa."
However, it appears that Israeli threats to wage a significant war to eliminate what Israeli officials describe as Hezbollah's threats against the Israeli settlements across the southern Lebanese border still face several obstacles to their implementation. The main obstacle is the refusal of the United States, Israel's primary ally, to give the green light for such actions to avoid escalating the situation in the region. This is confirmed by all statements and positions stemming from the U.S. administration, which emphasizes the need to allow the diplomatic efforts being conducted by U.S. presidential advisor Amos Hochstein sufficient opportunity to resolve the disputes and issues at the border. He has not exhausted his efforts thus far and is continually working towards reaching an understanding between Lebanon and Israel, even though his return is currently deemed unlikely, awaiting the resolution of what remains of limited disagreements to achieve a final agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
Additionally, the Israeli Occupation Army remains embroiled in the war in Gaza and its repercussions, amid a division within the ruling political cadre in Israel due to the failure of declared Israeli war objectives, primarily the elimination of Hamas and the recovery of detained Israeli and foreign hostages held by it.
On the other hand, despite Hezbollah's preparedness to face any Israeli war against it, and although it considers a conflict unlikely for the aforementioned reasons, it is nonetheless allowing the diplomatic efforts underway the necessary opportunity to conclude the ongoing military confrontation and address all existing issues between Lebanon and Israel along the southern Lebanese border.
Thus, despite the escalation of mutual threats and the prevailing war atmosphere, along with growing fear and anxiety among the Lebanese, it seems that both Hezbollah and Israel are wary of the outbreak of war, each for its own reasons and circumstances at present. They prefer the success of diplomatic efforts to solve border issues and reach a final agreement between them.
While awaiting a diplomatic resolution to the military confrontation along the southern Lebanese border, Israeli officials have been raising threats of war against Hezbollah, leaving the Lebanese suspended in a tension-filled situation between the ongoing Israeli conflict in the south and the hope that U.S. diplomacy will succeed in resolving the military confrontation in the south, a task that seems to require some time until a deal is reached to end the Gaza war first.
Despite these predictions that rule out the option of Israel engaging in war against Hezbollah and Lebanon at this time, there are concerns that Israel may impede reaching any deal to end the Gaza war. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to evade agreeing to it, keeping the southern Lebanese front open and possibly launching a war against Hezbollah, intending to draw the U.S. administration into supporting him during this critical and short window ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, according to "Al-Liwaa."
