In the past two days, opposition deputies have succeeded in proving what is clear and certain in Lebanon during this period. The "national duo" will not, and has not, changed its position or goal of bringing former Minister Sleiman Franjieh to the presidency of Lebanon. If the other parties do not agree to this nomination, the duo will not alter their stance regardless of the circumstances or the price. All initiatives and movements that have occurred or will occur will not influence them or put them in a different or conciliatory position.
As known, during the past two days, opposition deputies have presented what is referred to as a two-part initiative, primarily centered on excluding the idea of Speaker Nabih Berri, which calls for gathering all parties at a dialogue table before electing the president, and then electing him. The opposition made significant efforts in the last two days in an attempt to break the stifling deadlock in the presidential file by proposing initiatives and ideas for resolution, under the slogan of getting closer to Speaker Berri's orientations and positions, presenting a formula close or similar to his proposal of conducting dialogue or consultation before electing the hoped-for next president.
The opposition, which refuses to agree to Berri's dialogue proposals, believes that entering into and agreeing to them would establish a precedent that exceeds, violates, and dilutes the already compromised constitution since its approval in the Taif Agreement. Furthermore, they reject allowing a precedent to be set for an obligatory practice outside the constitution, which mandates dialogue before electing any president whenever the country approaches a presidential election. This is instead of going to the council to elect the president according to the democratic parliamentary game, that is, leaving the session open for voting by deputies to choose the president.
The fundamental issue for the duo, as is apparent, is to know who the president is and ensure his arrival before entering the election session. This means pre-selecting the president based on their calculations and interests and then ensuring his election in parliament, rather than entering the parliament and leaving matters to the uncertainties of the democratic game and its potential surprises.
In the duo's calculations, the current conditions do not allow for experimentation and testing in these sensitive local and regional circumstances. Therefore, the president must be chosen with certainty and must be trustworthy alongside resistance, along its lines, and "not stab it in the back," as has been previously stated. There is absolutely no room for risk, as leaving matters to the freedom of choice in the presidential election session may allow the election of a president that the duo does not want, and that is outside their will, which poses a future danger to them and to the current support weapon and confrontation in the future.
In the last century, during the election session of Sleiman Franjieh the grandfather in 1970, he won by a single vote, which has not yet been determined who cast the decisive vote that contributed to his victory. This is currently unacceptable, as it carries within it the possibility of a non-guaranteed or unaccounted president succeeding, which the duo does not want, in a situation they consider extremely dangerous.
Leaving the democratic game open brings various risks that are undesirable. It could allow a president to emerge that the resistance does not want, as he may lead them into crises after his election, which they do not want to experience. Hence, the insistence on electing Sleiman Franjieh, "the son of the line," is essential now, regardless of the outcomes.
What the other parties have yet to understand clearly is that the presidency at this stage no longer has any role as it currently stands. The choices are clear for the duo: either Sleiman Franjieh or no president in Baabda. This is what is being implemented and acted upon.
As long as the war is ongoing in Gaza, there will be no presidency or solutions. It is better to recognize these realities. The international and regional parties that want to negotiate with Lebanon on any file, especially the USA and Israel, are, in fact, currently negotiating with Speaker Berri on behalf of Hezbollah. Before the end of President Aoun's term, they were negotiating with Berri and still are.
Electing a president now, regardless of his personality and program, will overshadow Speaker Berri's position, which he obtained due to the crisis. So why change? What benefit would that bring other than obstruction and increasing objections?!
The financial and monetary decisions are currently orbiting around Speaker Berri. Thus, they secure the duo's satisfaction. In other words, any election of a president, regardless of his attributes, will diminish the path and magnitude of what the current Speaker of the House enjoys.
The caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, was clear in outlining the current political boundaries and the catastrophic conditions he lives in, without hesitation or confusion, when he said during his visit to the south, coordinated with Speaker Berri, his succinct and concentrated phrase: "The resistance is doing its part, and the government is doing its part." Thus, simply and easily, without a headache or embarrassment from anyone!
For all these reasons, the opposition and other accompanying political forces must think and choose: either maintain the current conditions as they are, with their known balances and outcomes, or wait for the promised presidency, just as one waits for Godot?