Waiting and stagnation dominate the Lebanese political scene. There is an expectation for the war to cease or for a partial calm in Gaza, which will subsequently affect the support front from southern Lebanon initiated by Hezbollah on October 8, 2023, a day after the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation carried out by Hamas in the Gaza border settlements. This stagnation reflects a paralysis in institutions, following the failure to achieve the presidential election by its maximum deadline on October 31, 2022, the date marking the end of former President Michel Aoun's term.
It has become clear that negotiations aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza are subject to fluctuations, due to the purely military behavior of Israeli leaders, risking the collapse of a potential settlement looming on the horizon amid an Israeli strike on a possible target from Hamas. In Lebanon, there is a belief that the waiting period for the cessation of hostilities in Gaza will be prolonged, and no one knows how long the desired settlement will take.
However, the questions raised within the Lebanese interior are: Will Lebanon remain a prisoner of the stagnation stemming from the Gaza war? And how can we create a breakthrough to revive the blocked arteries of official Lebanese institutions, primarily the presidency? Is there a step that could mobilize Lebanon's primary institution, the presidency, to be ready upon arrival at potential solutions? In other words, is it possible to separate the presidential file from the conclusion of the Gaza war? Who will take the initiative in this regard?
Many questions remain, and perhaps answers will emerge from some place. For this reason, Cardinal Pietro Barolin, the Secretary of State of the Vatican, made a significant move during his recent visit to Lebanon by presenting a quintet list of potential presidential candidates who could be considered consensual and acceptable to all parties.
Barolin presented this list, according to exclusive information from "Anbaa," to Christian leaders he met at the papal embassy in Harissa, although it is unclear whether the offer included all key figures. However, available information indicated that Barolin discussed potential plans with former Minister Suleiman Frangieh, the presidential candidate from the Marada Movement, in light of the lack of success opportunities for Frangieh in reaching the Baabda Palace. Sources confirmed that Barolin and Frangieh discussed a backup plan, an alternative to continue his candidacy in the event of a deadlock in the nomination process.
Moreover, it is reported that the quintet list included three previously mentioned names, including: the current ambassador to the Vatican, former MP Fred Elias Khazen; the former ambassador to the Vatican and former head of Lebanese army intelligence, Brigadier General George Khoury; and former Minister Jean-Louis Qardahi, along with two names whose identities have not yet been confirmed. It was emphasized that the list does not include the name of a current MP who previously visited the Vatican and met with Barolin.
It may prove difficult to proceed with the presidential issue given the obstacles it faces, which leave the nation in a state of waiting and stagnation. However, attempts are ongoing, according to the Kuwaiti "Anbaa."
