The gunfire in Pennsylvania sent echoes around the world, including Lebanon, which was captivated by the assassination attempt on former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump and its repercussions in the land of Uncle Sam. America was gripped by tense hours, keeping a watchful eye on this dramatic event, with its heart heavy over potential outcomes, all of which reflect a deep-seated internal division and significant political and social fissures, reviving fears reminiscent of times from the American Civil War as reported by "Al-Rai" newspaper in Kuwait.
With Trump narrowly escaping death from a bullet that grazed his ear, the narrative has shifted perceptions towards the current President Joe Biden and his chances of remaining the Democratic Party's nominee. This comes in light of symbolic interpretations of Trump’s campaign, now drenched in his own blood, exiting this fiery ordeal with a raised fist beneath the American flag as if it signifies an upcoming victory.
Following this dramatic development, various angles emerged in Beirut, viewing it from beyond the direct and internal implications of the political violence that has now arisen from Trump's fate and that of his country, bringing about the concern that any calm in the region is now over 10,800 kilometers away, the shortest aerial distance between the United States and Palestine.
The recent massacre in Khan Younis had thrown the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza into a precarious turn, seemingly bringing them to a halt, driven largely by Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm agenda regarding the sector and its future without Hamas. The Pennsylvania incident, which is expected to give a push to Trump's campaign, further solidifies the belief that the Israeli Prime Minister will continue with his plans for Gaza amid concerns that he may push beyond in erasing the sector, capitalizing on the strain that will diminish Biden's influence over the situation, a prospect that also extends to the equation on Lebanon’s southern front from Tel Aviv or the resistance axis.
In the wake of reports from the Israeli Prime Minister stating an intent to change the military reality in the north for generations and a commitment not to accept the status quo, while French President Emmanuel Macron warned of grave risks facing Lebanon, insisting on ensuring the country’s security and fully implementing UN Resolution 1701, all scenarios regarding the fate of the southern front remain on the table. Recently, Israel escalated its attacks targeting Lebanese infrastructure, including heavy artillery shelling of the Merjeyoun power station, causing significant damage according to Lebanon's Electric Company.
While Hezbollah continues its operations against Israeli military sites, employing heavy missiles including from its Vulcan and Jihad families, observers point out that the current attrition war on Lebanon’s front is likely to continue for a long time given the growing consensus that Netanyahu, who negotiates little but maneuvers heavily, is plotting to sustain his war on Gaza, awaiting tactical victories or changes that could allow him greater latitude in governance, such as a Trump election victory.
These observers argue that this approach presents a dual dilemma: for Netanyahu, who makes many threats against Hezbollah and Lebanon, amid beliefs he will not risk a large-scale war at his northern border; and for Hezbollah itself, as the war in support of Gaza that it initiated over nine months ago is unlikely to salvage the remnants of Gaza or prevent painful losses for Hamas as long as Netanyahu pursues unyielding warfare. This situation raises questions about the options available to Hezbollah amidst promises to prevent Hamas's defeat.
The same observers suggest that Netanyahu, who personally oversees the war and negotiations in Gaza, will likely content himself for now with boasting about targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, despite various scenarios on the table, such as combat days to push Hezbollah back from the border by 8 to 10 kilometers, or a purely military intelligent warfare against Hezbollah’s arsenals, avoiding provoking Hezbollah into striking vital targets within Israel, or the more expansive warfare that cannot be completely dismissed despite its diminishing likelihood.
In the coming period, the pressing question is how the resistance axis, led by Hezbollah, can establish new rules compelling Netanyahu to cease his war against Gaza and Hamas, and push him at least to proceed with negotiations regarding Biden's proposals, especially since Israel is struggling at all levels, managing thus far to endure the costs of the fronts in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq according to "Al-Rai" newspaper in Kuwait.
