The scene of terror in Lebanon is complete with an Israeli warning raid on the Hadath area, prompting parents to rush to pull their children out of schools. This fear is echoed from the past months due to an ill-calculated decision to launch rockets from the south towards Israel.
Meanwhile, to the east and north, the Syrian state is intensifying actions against what it perceives as "Hezbollah" violations of its sovereignty. This includes areas with heated conflicts, as well as internal actions, such as the security campaign in the Sayyida Zainab region of Damascus countryside against cells purportedly linked to "Hezbollah", which the Syrian Ministry of Interior says were planning criminal operations.
In this security turmoil, Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam prefer to adhere to precise standards for balancing their commitments, including the exclusive armament by the state and moving away from the "Army, People, Resistance" equation. They wish to avoid confrontation with "Hezbollah," perhaps waiting for a clearer picture of the regional developments from Tel Aviv to Iran.
While "Hezbollah" denies involvement with the rockets and remains silent about the ongoing Syrian regime "cleansing operations", both Syria and Israel direct blame at the Lebanese government for the "party’s actions", which they claim justify continued Israeli aggression and strain Syrian-Lebanese relations, necessitating a Saudi effort to ease tensions.
However, the state's efforts appear misaligned with reality, causing minor skirmishes and setbacks that could escalate and obstruct governmental progress, which cannot happen swiftly.
All these events coincide with President Aoun's visit to Paris and his expected conversation with Syrian President Ahmed Shara, suggesting that Lebanon is caught between Iranian interests and Israeli conditions imposed through aggression, compelling both Lebanon and Syria towards normalization that serves Israel's interests.
The situation underscores the consequences of keeping Lebanon a testing ground due to rocket launches or Sayyida Zainab cells, which superficial remedies can no longer address.
The only pathway out of this minefield is for the state to assert its sovereignty. It is no longer acceptable to wait for "Hezbollah" to decide, in action not merely words, to withdraw its elements from Sayyida Zainab or southern Lebanon, cease the loss of "martyrs," economic and security resources, and hand over its arsenal to the Lebanese army. This would enable Lebanon to remove these pretexts, improving relations with Syria or seeking international aid for Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon.
It seems the grace period has ended... and the situation is open to frightening possibilities... not just warning ones.