The potential final agreement between Iran and the U.S., following a memorandum of understanding, could paradoxically empower Iran's Revolutionary Guard with substantial financial gains. This could bolster a force deemed a terrorist organization by the U.S. and its Western allies, according to Reuters.
For years, the Revolutionary Guard thrived despite sanctions, building a vast commercial empire spanning oil, construction, shipping, telecommunications, and ports.
As Tehran and Washington prepare for talks that might open doors to billions flowing into Iran and revive its economy to global investments, the Guard is positioned as a primary beneficiary.
Four senior Iranian sources indicated that the Revolutionary Guard is uniquely positioned to receive a significant share of any financial gains from lifted sanctions, renewed oil exports, and foreign investments. However, its central role and designation as a terrorist entity could complicate efforts to free the economy from sanctions.
Even if a broader agreement is not reached and sanctions remain, the Guard would still benefit from temporary oil export exemptions and continue tightening its economic grip through its sanction-evasion expertise.
'The Real Winner'
A senior source described the Revolutionary Guard as the true winner of the conflict, stating that after ensuring the Iranian regime's survival, it’s best placed to capitalize on any sanctions removal. The Guard has managed Iran's sanctions-breaching operations for decades now, reported Reuters.
Another senior source mentioned that while the Guard doesn’t disclose financial data, any efforts to revive the economy would expand its significant financial influence, highlighting existing trade networks worth billions and activities in oil, shipping, and construction.
Hundreds of Companies
According to official data and public records, the Guard's engineering arm, Khatam-al Anbiya, oversees hundreds of subsidiaries engaged in major infrastructure and energy projects, as well as telecommunications, automotive, tourism, and logistics sectors.
Given Iran's investment laws requiring foreign companies to partner with local firms, the vast number of Guard-linked companies ensures they act as a gateway for potential investors to Iran's lucrative sectors.
This means Western firms returning to the Iranian market might end up working alongside or through entities indirectly linked to the Guard, risking exposure to ongoing sanctions specifically targeting the Revolutionary Guard.
Vast Commercial Empire
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, founded by late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, thrived under his successor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gaining political influence while extending its reach across the Middle East and suppressing domestic opposition.
Following the February 28 conflict outbreak with attacks killing Khamenei, the Guard expanded its domestic influence, helping his son Mojtaba Khamenei rise as the new Supreme Leader.
Nonetheless, it supported the war-ending agreement and memorandum of understanding signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Bazshkian last Wednesday night.
This memorandum allows exemptions for sanctioned oil sales, while any comprehensive agreement reached in the coming period could lift other sanctions and grant Iran access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund.