According to Yemeni military and strategic expert Khaled Al-Nassi, the Houthi advance along Yemen's western coast is not merely a limited field maneuver, but a strategic achievement resulting from the chaos and disarray among anti-Houthi forces.
Al-Nassi, speaking on Sky News Arabia's "Al-Tasia" program, explained that this disarray has allowed the Houthis to quickly capture the heights overlooking Mocha and Al-Khokha, and advance towards the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Mayyun Island.
He warns that this strategic gain positions the Houthis in a more advanced and perilous stance, as it places them in control of the entrance to the Red Sea and its navigation routes.
Al-Nassi details the intensification of military activities over the past week, with Houthi forces moving westward toward Mocha, confronting opposing forces such as the National Resistance and forces under Taiz Axis command.
While there was potential to halt the Houthi advance towards Mocha, disarray allowed the Houthis, within 48 hours, to control significant heights on the western coast previously outside their control.
This progress, Al-Nassi ties to the lack of coordination among anti-Houthi forces, emphasizing the independence and leadership multiplicity within opposing formations, where Taiz Axis forces diverge from those of the National Resistance and Southern Giants in Mocha, contributing to operational confusion and described betrayals, particularly in Taiz.
Subsequently, this disorganization facilitated Houthi consolidation in Mocha and further push south towards Bab el-Mandeb and Mayyun Island.
Mayyun Island: A Strategic Shift
Commanding Mayyun Island cements a military shift, with Al-Nassi noting Houthi control equates to managing the principal entry into the Red Sea.
Previous Houthi threats to Red Sea navigation since late 2023 underscore the significance of their presence; now physically engaging the island advances their strategic foothold.
Al-Nassi highlights Mayyun's strategic role, where it splits the Bab el-Mandeb into two channels, with one leading east towards Yemen and the navigational lane west towards Africa. Here, he notes the Houthis do not need advanced weaponry but can rely on artillery or launchers to impact maritime movements.
Possession of this site grants Houthis control over the passage through Bab el-Mandeb into the Red Sea and towards the Suez Canal, with military, intelligence, and political advantages. Al-Nassi mentions intelligence suggesting collaboration between the Houthis and Somalia's Al-Shabaab, amplifying the site's strategic importance.
Airstrikes Insufficient to Change Dynamics
Despite continued airstrikes, Al-Nassi argues that these have not halted Houthi expansion.
Altering the battlefield dynamics, he insists, requires unified ground forces with coordinated commands and a singular operational framework. Disunited formations and decentralized command weaken anti-Houthi efforts.
Al-Nassi frames the Houthi expansion within an alleged Iranian strategy, citing Iranian officers' presence on the ground, aiming to divert pressure after losing momentum in the Strait of Hormuz.
He suggests that escalating the conflict and opening a crucial new front might prompt U.S. intervention, thereby alleviating Iranian pressure through distraction. However, Al-Nassi doubts immediate direct U.S. military intervention against Houthis, predicting instead support through coordination with Saudi Arabia.