What Lebanon is experiencing during the summer months resembles a "break." This does not mean that crises have stopped or that the lives of Lebanese people are flourishing; rather, this season has come, especially with the arrival of expatriates bringing doses of love, hope, and dollars to their homeland and families, to momentarily divert attention from what looms ahead after the summer "high" and billions from tourists... So, what will happen at the beginning of autumn? In response to this question, political analyst Johnny Mounir stated that "Lebanon is in a critical situation; despite the large cash influx in dollars from expatriates during the summer, this has not reduced the black market exchange rate as seen, but rather we have witnessed some increases. This indicates that financial and economic conditions are heading towards further worsening as summer comes to an end, and all indicators suggest that the dollar exchange rate will continue to spiral upwards."
From a political perspective, Mounir pointed out that "external pressure is mounting for the election of a president, with the deadline starting in September, yet Hezbollah will boycott the election session if it cannot ensure the presidency of 'Maronite' leader Sleiman Frangieh, which is uncertain especially considering the political tug-of-war and the positions of 'Free Patriotic Movement' leader Gibran Bassil. This clearly indicates that elections will not take place on schedule and that the situation will further deteriorate." When we asked Mounir what the country can expect amid a presidential vacuum, he confirmed that "there will be no safeguards then, and we are headed towards social chaos that could result in bloodshed due to movements, protests, and public clashes, escalating to complete chaos and a total decline in vital sectors, particularly electricity. At that point, external pressure for a presidential settlement may intensify, but what is certain is that the near future scenario is catastrophic."
