The bread crisis is knocking on the doors once again, and it seems that it will worsen in the coming days. Data indicates that the wheat available barely suffices for a maximum of 20 days and is gradually depleting from the regions. After the alarm was raised the day before yesterday in the Beqaa Valley, the crisis will extend to include other regions subsequently. Regardless of the solutions and the speed of addressing the issue, shortages are inevitably imminent. Despite the reassurances and solutions relayed by officials since the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia that Lebanon is working to ensure its wheat supply, it has quickly become clear that the crisis is unavoidable.
The problem does not lie in the importation or the global availability of wheat and Lebanon’s capacity to secure its needs; rather, the core of the problem is the availability of funds first, followed by poor crisis management regarding equitable distribution to regions. The current plan entails opening the Central Bank for credit on wheat ships, with a deliberate delay occurring between one ship and another. Each time, a ship is chosen to supply a specific region or province, which explains the wheat shortages in some areas while others are unaffected.
The first alarm was raised in the Beqaa Valley, where bakery owners warned of igniting an unbearable crisis, thus urging the officials to act before the situation deteriorates, cautioning against taking escalatory measures, and revealing that the country is completely devoid of wheat. Are we really facing a crisis? Why do the Beqaa mills suffer from shortages unlike other regions?
In this context, Antoine Seif, the head of bakery owners in Mount Lebanon, confirmed that wheat is missing in some mills, which explains the closure of several, especially in the Beqaa Valley. He noted that some mills have wheat, but the Central Bank has not paid for it at the subsidized price, hence it is not available for sale. Mills cannot sell their stock at non-subsidized prices due to a decision issued by the Minister of Economy stating that all wheat present in Lebanese territories is exclusively designated for Lebanese bread to ensure food security.
Seif assured "Al-Joumhouria": "We are heading towards a crisis; the Central Bank is only paying for wheat in dribs and drabs, despite a sum being allocated from the International Monetary Fund for Lebanon to purchase wheat," adding that this amount is nearing exhaustion, estimated to range from 7 to 8 million dollars, barely enough to pay for the wheat present in Lebanese territories.
Regarding the next step, Seif explained the initiation of negotiations with the World Bank to secure 150 million dollars aimed at ensuring wheat for Lebanon for a year, provided it is used solely for Lebanese bread production. However, the problem is that we are still in the negotiation phase, and this step requires approval from the Parliament alongside agreement on logistical arrangements, such as where the World Bank will transfer the funds, who will be responsible for them, and who will benefit from them. All these details, and others, remain unclear and will take at least two months to resolve, import wheat, and ship it. The issue is that we do not have this time, as all the wheat currently available in Lebanon, designated solely for Lebanese bread production, barely suffices for 20 days, after which bread will vanish from the market.
Additionally, flour is available in limited amounts for other types and products; traders import it from Turkey and other countries, but without support. This will lead to an additional rise in bakery product prices.
Seif saw that there is currently one available solution that is closest to implementation, which could constitute a temporary fix until the World Bank loan is settled. It involves requesting the government to allocate 15 million dollars from the mandatory reserve to secure around 30,000 tons of wheat, sufficient for about a month and a half for Lebanon, immediately upon depleting the current stock, within a timeframe not exceeding 20 days at most, to supply the market with flour once the current stock runs out, covering the anticipated shortages within the period when the mills’ stock ends, i.e., in 20 days, until the World Bank loan utilization commences at a minimum of two months. He stated: "To avoid falling into shortages, this solution should be adopted as soon as possible, within 24 to 48 hours, after which wheat can be secured in 20 days."
