A series of messages and signals that can be described as "positive" have been exchanged between head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" and MP Jibran Bassil, and head of the "Marada Movement" Sleiman Frangieh, since their reconciliation meeting held under the auspices of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah last April, in their capacity as allies. Although the meeting remained singular due to it being an election season, both parties are awaiting the appropriate timing to rekindle some warmth in their relationship, which had completely deteriorated and transformed into hostility over the backdrop of the last presidential elections, with Frangieh being the main competitor of General Michel Aoun for the presidency.
The two sides engaged in a "silent" electoral battle in May, primarily competing in the "third northern district". The reconciliation, achieved by Nasrallah over an iftar meal, had electoral implications, specifically regarding the reduction of tensions between them to its minimum and focusing each of their electoral campaigns against other parties, particularly the "Lebanese Forces".
Perhaps one of the most notable positive signals from Bassil to Bnechii was his statement during the electoral campaign: "No matter how much we differ with Frangieh, he remains authentic." In a practical gesture to extend an "Aounist" hand, the deputies of the "Independent National Bloc," which includes MPs Farid Haykal Khazen, Tony Frangieh, and William Tawq, who are aligned with Frangieh, decided to vote for the "movement's" candidate for the vice-presidency of the parliament, Elias Bou Saab, as well as for MP Alan Aoun for membership in the council bureau.
Sources concerned with mending the relationship between the two parties told "Asharq Al-Awsat" that "the atmosphere is very positive between them, and individual meetings have occurred with each of them to follow up on political developments, even if the discussions did not address reconciliation per se." A few days ago, Frangieh met with Bou Saab in the presence of MP Tony Frangieh and former minister Youssef Saadeh, and the two sides officially announced that they discussed "the overall situations, developments, in addition to upcoming deadlines and the ways to exit the current crisis."
Sources from "Marada" did not deny that the discussions touched upon the relationship with "the Free Patriotic Movement," noting that "the decision to vote for Bou Saab has two implications; the first is related to the good relationship with him, and because we have no knowledge of the MP competing against him for the position, and the second is undoubtedly part of the positive signals exchanged between 'Marada' and 'the Movement'." Sources explained in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that since the "ice-breaking" meeting under the sponsorship of "Hezbollah," no other meeting has occurred between Frangieh and Bassil or any party meeting to build on that, adding: "There was an understanding to hold further meetings after the parliamentary elections, but nothing practical has materialized yet, although we, like 'the Movement', have the desire to work on this relationship."
On the other hand, one of the leaders in the Free Patriotic Movement confirmed their efforts to reach an understanding with all parties and to avoid problems with everyone, stating to "Asharq Al-Awsat," "There is an interest for us and a greater interest for 'Marada' that the relationship between us returns to what it was before the last presidential elections, and why not be part of a single bloc? This way, we expand our bloc and they, after the decrease in their number of MPs, become part of a larger bloc." The leader, who preferred not to disclose his identity, believes that reaching a memorandum of understanding with "Marada" would help ease the tensions and create a more relaxed atmosphere, allowing both sides to avoid confrontation on an additional front.
Frangieh and Bassil are described as "fierce allies" of "Hezbollah," and they are competing candidates for the presidency, originating from two areas close to northern Lebanon. There are deep differences between them that prevented any electoral alliance in the 2018 and 2022 elections. While both parties confirm that discussions regarding the upcoming presidential file have not yet begun and that "Hezbollah" has not approached them about it at any point, neither during nor after the reconciliation session, informed sources on the party's atmosphere confirm that it "has decided to deal with the upcoming deadlines one at a time, the most prominent being the session to elect committee members, followed by consultations to assign a President for the Council of Ministers, and then the government formation. As for the presidential deadline, it is left to its time, especially since it is affected by existing regional and international conditions; therefore, initiating discussions on it at this stage would not serve anyone and would create tensions that we currently want to avoid."
The sources added to "Asharq Al-Awsat": "(Hezbollah) has not promised anyone to adopt his candidacy for the presidency, and since the election of General Aoun as president, it has not discussed the upcoming presidential elections... If there is anything certain in this regard, it will not repeat the experience of obstructing presidential election sessions to impose the election of a specific figure, as the country cannot bear that today."
