The "Republic" writes: In two days, the final picture of the electoral lists will take shape, and starting from the fifth of this month, the race towards the promised day on May 15th will begin, accompanied by political and populist rallying slogans that will form the substance of political mobilization over the next forty days leading up to the election. While the current electoral momentum seems to favor holding the elections on schedule, all parties involved in this process are pulled by the likelihood that this frantic electoral race is fraught with surprises and upheavals that the Lebanese reality may experience in the coming weeks, amidst the fragility affecting this reality at all levels, whether related to the fate of the elections, or the financial, economic, and living conditions worsening beyond what they are today.
Embarrassment and Concern
As the preparatory phase for the elections concludes with the finalization of alliances and the formation of lists, the competing parties aim to ensure victory on May 15. However, a realistic look at the electoral scene reveals that all parties, without exception, find themselves in a precarious situation, grappling with genuine anxiety and significant fear that the ballot boxes, when opened on May 15, will undermine the grand change slogans they’ve raised over the past two years and shatter the hopes pinned on the election that promised to bring about a radical shift in the current parliamentary and political landscape.
It is clear that the crisis facing political parties, particularly those with grand slogans, is less severe than the crisis faced by the activist forces that have classified themselves as revolutionary and reformist. The parties seem to have acknowledged their exaggeration in raising the level of slogans and aspirations; hence, they mobilized their base with these lofty slogans but aimed for a far more modest goal—maintaining their current representation in parliament. Some have faced the possibility of a decline in their representation compared to their status in the current parliament, which would be a devastating political and moral blow, particularly in front of an electorate that had been misled into believing that change was within reach.
In contrast, the fragmentation of the civil forces championing change is evident, as these forces find themselves facing not only the parties that have capitalized on their movement since October 17, 2019, but also their internal divisions and varied agendas, which have hindered their ability to unite within "strong" or joint lists capable of fulfilling some of the promises made since October 17 and breaking the existing impasse.
While the electoral picture seems to initially favor the parties over the activist forces, the road for these parties towards the elections does not appear to be paved with roses. Their toughest opponent on election day will not be the competing lists but rather the voter turnout, which all studies and surveys indicate will be the lowest in the history of parliamentary elections in Lebanon. Thus, the actual battle for the parties is with the public mood that has declared its despair with the political class, in an attempt to persuade and attract voters to the ballot boxes, especially since these parties know that with a declining turnout, all possibilities are open.
Potential Fuel Crisis?
Amidst the politically troubled public mood that is disillusioned with the parties and the ruling elite, a key factor noted by one electoral study suggests it might contribute significantly to a lower voter turnout—the cost of transporting voters, which will undoubtedly impose substantial burdens on the parties and those concerned with this electoral process. However, the largest burden will be on the voters, who, even if willing to vote voluntarily, will find themselves shocked by the high cost they will incur for securing gasoline for their cars, potentially leading them to abstain from participating in the voting process. The most critical point indicated by that study is a plausible scenario where those affected by the election process might fabricate a fuel crisis right before the elections. If this occurs, it could serve as a pretext for preventing the elections under the claim that voters cannot reach their towns and villages to exercise their electoral rights.
Concerns Over Disruption Movements
Interestingly, alongside official assurances for holding the elections on schedule and continuous calls for mass participation in the voting process, political sources expressed their fears to the "Republic," stating: "The possibility of disrupting the electoral process is difficult for any internal political party, even if it wished to do so. However, what is feared is the possibility of engaging in a different game that seeks to cast preemptive doubt on the legitimacy of the parliamentary representation. Some political and activist forces, which found their promised change unattainable, might form lists to access parliament in an effort to shift their battle in another direction—playing the game of reducing voter turnout by encouraging voters to stay at home, either through direct and explicit calls to boycott the election of a pre-arranged parliament, which some activists have begun to label as such, or through field movements and reigniting tensions in the streets, blocking roads in various regions."
When the "Republic" asked a security official about the measures that could be taken to address such movements if they occur, he replied: "We do not see any evidence confirming this possibility so far, but in any case, all security and military state agencies are on alert to protect the electoral process and ensure the elections occur in a calm and stable atmosphere. Therefore, we will not allow any disruption to the security of the people or the elections."
Berri Within the Electoral Context
Speaker of the House Nabih Berri launched the electoral campaign for the "Hope and Loyalty" list in the second district of the South from Al-Mussaylakh yesterday. He affirmed during this event, "Lebanon's future, destiny, identity, constants, and ways out of the crisis are linked to the results of this electoral round across Lebanon." Berri addressed those he called "holders of bags filled with hard currency, who spent $30 million in this district," stating: "The sons of this land are descendants of Saint Christ; they do not trade their constants and resistance for silver or anything else." He warned against "surrendering to what is being promoted" and urged that votes from anyone qualified to vote should be a response to thwart their schemes. He emphasized that "in unity, there is hope; we protect and build, and trust that the foundation for achieving solutions to this crisis is largely fabricated externally... In unity, there is hope to save Lebanon from sectarianism and confessionalism, and we can invest all our wealth, for our borders are drawn in blood and are not subject to trading or bargaining."
Darian
For his part, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul-Latif Darian urged the Lebanese to "go together to the elections to produce alternatives." In his message on the occasion of the arrival of Ramadan, he stated: "We witness the destruction or undermining of everything built by the Lebanese over 100 years, facing all attempts at reform, with the judiciary, banking sector, and Lebanon's relations with Arab countries being demolished, and desperate attempts to assault Lebanon's identity and belonging, along with violations of the constitution and dismantling of the principle of separation of powers."
He added: "There is a notable solidarity with Lebanon from Arabs and the world despite their anger at the strange seizure and blatant corruption, and there is no one who wishes to assist except by ensuring no assistance reaches the government whose members have hardened their heads."
Stalled Issues
On another note, the internal scene remained stuck in a flow of major headlines and files, all seemingly racing against time and colliding with a wall that prevents any from reaching the desired goal, be it concerning the capital control project, which the modified version approved by the government in its last session has failed to remove from the realm of ambiguities and objections regarding its form and content, or in terms of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund that resurfaced with the presence of the IMF delegation in Beirut to assist the government in crystallizing its plan and program that should form the basis for negotiations towards an agreement with the fund. Notably, IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice announced yesterday that "further progress has been made in talks with Lebanon," indicating that the fund is keen to reach an agreement with the Lebanese authorities, while stressing there's still significant work to be done. He noted that the delegation will announce the results at the end of their mission.
While government sources anticipated that this file would soon be tackled in parliament, parliamentary sources confirmed to the "Republic" that what has emerged from the new version does not fundamentally differ from the previous version rejected by the joint parliamentary committees. Thus, its fate is likely to mirror that of the previous version, especially concerning the absence of any explicit reference protecting depositors' funds and ensuring their return.
The sources pointed out that the discussions of the IMF delegation in Beirut in recent days reflected on one hand the fund's readiness to assist Lebanon, provided that pre-established conditions are met, which the Lebanese government is aware of. On the other hand, it reaffirmed that the fund would not assign blame to depositors or deprive them of their rights, a reflection of which prompted a political figure to assert candidly: "The IMF and international community seem to care more about the rights of Lebanese depositors than the Lebanese themselves." He added, "Capital control is urgently needed, but in a format that aids in solving the crisis, not complicating it. If it is enacted in its existing form, it means no one will be able to proceed."
Final Opportunity
In this context, the "Republic" has learned of a meeting that took place a few days ago between a group of economists and the ambassador of a major European country, during which the ambassador presented a bleak reading of the Lebanese reality, summarized as follows: First, despite recent international developments between Russia and Ukraine, Lebanon has not exited the sphere of international attention; the international community is still waiting for the parliamentary elections to be conducted impartially and fairly. Second, the international community, along with all international financial institutions, remains committed to assisting Lebanon also if the Lebanese government initiates the necessary reform measures. It is regrettable that the Lebanese government has yet to take such steps despite all the promises and commitments we're hearing. Third, Lebanese officials must recognize that they are facing their last chance to save their country by committing to fulfilling their reform obligations; if this opportunity is missed, there will be no hope for Lebanon to emerge from the crisis, and the suffering of the Lebanese people will only worsen and become more severe.
According to accounts from some attendees regarding the ambassador, the agreement on a cooperation program between Lebanon and the IMF represents a crucial and urgent step towards pulling Lebanon out of its crisis, and the initiative in this context is in the hands of the Lebanese government, which the fund expects to offer something tangible and encouraging for reaching an agreement with it. The longer the delay, the greater the negative implications for Lebanon. However, the same ambassador disclosed another path for Lebanon to exit its crisis, affirming that the essential role lies with the Lebanese government, particularly in its earnest pursuit to recover funds that have been smuggled or transferred abroad over the past three years, funds which are largely the result of corruption, theft, and fraud operations—an assertion attributed to the UN Secretary-General who confirmed during his recent visit to Lebanon that the Lebanese crisis and the squandering of its funds stemmed from a fraudulent operation.
The ambassador clarified, as relayed by some attendees, that "the smuggled or stolen funds belong to the Lebanese state, and according to what we hear from the Lebanese, these are very substantial sums. If Lebanon were to pursue or manage to recover this money, it could do without seeking help from the IMF or all international financial institutions and donor countries." He stated, "Today, you in Lebanon are facing one last opportunity to save yourselves. If you do not save yourselves through either swift and radical reforms or by recovering what was improperly taken out of your country, there will be no hope for you to exit from this crisis. You must compel those who took the funds to return them. Recovery is possible… but!"
A senior European official advised members of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the parliament to support Lebanon's initiative towards the recovery of funds from abroad, especially those linked to suspicions of theft and corruption. According to reliable information obtained by the "Republic," the European official addressed the committee members after they raised the issue of smuggled funds, saying: "We certainly support this idea, but I want to enlighten you: for these funds to be recovered, there is a complex mechanism and a long process involved. The Lebanese state cannot simply state that it has smuggled funds and wants to recover them and expect that its request will be fulfilled. First, there must be an investigation in Lebanon, and there must be a direct suspect with a clear and explicit charge of corruption and allegations that confirm he has smuggled money abroad, identifying its post-smuggling location, and then a judgment must be issued against them. Subsequently, the state can negotiate with the pertinent parties abroad about how to release and recover those funds. For your information, Tunisia has yet to recover anything from the funds smuggled abroad, and the same goes for Egypt. The pathway is long, indeed very long. The natural first step should begin in Lebanon, particularly through the enforcement of the law against illicit enrichment."
