Once again, the President of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Gebran Bassil, summarizes his approach to the presidential election with a single criterion: popular representation. From the summer patriarchal headquarters in Diman, he emphasizes that the president must have "representation manifested in a parliamentary and ministerial bloc that supports him and enhances his powers and position," considering "that the decision in this matter should rest with the 'actual representatives.'" This is essentially a new replication of the experience of electing General Michel Aoun, meaning electing the strongest or most powerful Maronite for the top position.
So far, Bassil has treated the presidential election with much generality, although he hastened to preempt the expected results from the ballot boxes, stating that "the presidential elections will not lead to the required change, as happened in the parliamentary elections, but they must happen; it is a mandatory entitlement that should take place on time."
In the preliminary interpretation of Bassil's words, it becomes clear that there are two candidates, with no third option, who qualify under the representation criterion raised by the "Free Patriotic Movement": Gebran Bassil and Samir Geagea. It is certain that the former will not vote for the latter, and the first is disqualified from the golden list because he is included on the U.S. blacklist. He has basically excluded his name from the presidential race "because I am not motivated and not convinced for two reasons: first, I do not see the country or see myself in the mood to engage in a battle to ensure the quorum and guarantee votes for my success and push my allies into a corner. It does not concern whether I have chances of winning or not, as every candidate makes his own chances. The second reason is that Michel Aoun was not allowed, so I am sure they will not allow me to work either. I would truly like to know who will be allowed to work."
This leads to the conclusion that the two qualified to pass through the "orange filter" will not be able to stand in the presidential arena, each for reasons pertinent to himself. Therefore, both are ultimately out of the competition. So how can this position be interpreted? According to a member of the "Strong Lebanon" bloc, the intent is to generalize the experience of electing Michel Aoun, the strong or strongest Maronite for the presidency and to prevent it from being an exceptional case, "a one-time event," but rather to establish it as a golden rule in the presidential entitlement. If the president of the "Free Patriotic Movement" is not the primary candidate, then the bloc must have the final say in naming this candidate to support the term and partner with it.
Effectively, Bassil is pushing to impose himself as a mandatory passage for the presidential entitlement as long as he will not be the most prominent candidate by using the weapon of Christian constitutionalism as a fundamental condition that the future president should possess, directly or indirectly, through his partnership with a team of substantial representation. This could stem from his fear of being surpassed in the final stages of the presidential entitlement, especially if "Hezbollah" cannot stitch the agreement between Bassil and whoever will move to Baabda Palace to replace President Aoun, and if it succeeds in securing a parliamentary majority in its pocket. This is the same weapon that Geagea will use in the presidential battle to target any candidate not emerging from under the umbrella of Maarab and its endorsement.
Accordingly, it is likely that Christian constitutionalism will be the strongest card that the Maronites resort to in their "great battle" in the coming days, especially since the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, which is the most serious compared to other nominations, did not originate from the heart of the March 8 forces, and "Hezbollah" is acting with a lot of calm regarding the nomination of its Al-Zgharta ally, who prefers to present his candidacy in a collaborative manner rather than an antagonistic one. In fact, the acceptance that Frangieh enjoys among the veterans of the "Future Movement" and the lack of opposition from the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, gives his candidacy a national dimension that transcends his sect... unlike Michel Aoun's nomination, which started from his Christian presence to negotiate with other political forces based on the premise that he is the strongest Maronite. This is why these forces are attempting to bring him back to square one: the sect.
