Lebanon

A Recipe for Lebanon Steeping in Regional Settlement

A Recipe for Lebanon Steeping in Regional Settlement

"The constitutional clash is merely a cover for the political clash," and the disagreement over reading the presidential message in the Parliament and the powers of the caretaker government reflects nothing but a blockage of solutions, indicating that the crisis is likely to worsen, and the economic and living conditions will continue to deteriorate. A political source lamented, through the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency, that each team "parks its horse" in a different place from the other, and so far, areas of convergence do not seem possible. He said: the failure to form a government will not necessarily accelerate the election of a president, adding: there may be those seeking to benefit from the current reality, but everyone knows that the parties that rejected or obstructed the formation of the government are the same ones that do not want to elect a president.

In response to a question, the source explained that there is a fear of drifting towards further financial and economic escalation that might impact security, meaning that any shake to the fragile stability could lead to a security jolt that may lead to unclear scenarios.

Here, the source believes that some think that through security threats, the chances of Army Commander Joseph Aoun rising might increase. This could be true, but at the same time, the danger is that any slide could lead to places where there may be no return, which could lead to a scenario similar to the Doha Conference in 2008, thereby moving towards settlements that benefit the traditional ruling political class which would resume sharing the "cheese mold" automatically.

However, such a scenario comes amidst rising significant questions regarding the understandings taking place in the region, starting from the maritime border demarcation file between Lebanon and Israel, where Hezbollah has been understanding and lenient — and of course, this is not coincidental but reflects the Iranian stance — up to the ongoing protests in Tehran for more than a month.

The source pointed out that Washington has not yet intervened in the Lebanese presidential line, but it has accomplished what interests it in the demarcation file. As for Saudi Arabia, it has brought the Taif Agreement back to the forefront and firmly placed it on the table.

The source concluded by saying: everything happening indicates that the presidential entitlement is occurring against the backdrop of a regional moment that is very different from its predecessors, and it may be part of a settlement being cooked at this level...

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