The narrow humanitarian spaces in the open Gaza war, along with its margins, do not change the course, outcomes, and objectives of this war. A month ago, we referred to it as a "war for peace," and it remains in its initial phase, whether it stays confined to Gaza or expands to other fronts. Its outcome will undoubtedly be a historical settlement between two exhausted parties: Israel and Palestine. Meanwhile, the major regional powers (Iran, Turkey, etc.) are being forced to trim their influence in the Arab world: there are no compensatory rewards for Iran in return for its retreat and for restraining its arms like Hezbollah and others, no honors for Turkey outside its borders, and no free rein for Israel in its biblical project. This is a war that brings everyone back to their objective sizes as stable nation-states within their borders, putting an end to their expansionist ambitions. Hamas will not be the only loser; Israel will also lose, along with all those who exploit the Palestinian cause, ride its wave, raise its slogans, and take advantage of its bloodshed.
The international community's agenda, including America, Europe, Russia, and China together, does not involve pushing these regional parties towards decisive defeats, but rather towards processes of scaling down and taming that allow for passing a settlement and a solution. The future is for civilizational competition and the race toward modernity, not for wallowing in the quagmire of backwardness and deadly sectarian and ideological conflicts that are open to closed horizons.
Before reactivating the Silk Road from China to the region and beyond, and charting the new path from India to Europe, along with the pipelines for gas and oil and the investment of offshore resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a leading future vision initiated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf States, which has raised the bar for civilizational challenge and creative competition for the welfare of the region's peoples, away from the bleeding of wars and their tragedies.
It is upon this modern economic and humanitarian vision that a long-awaited peace in the Middle East will be drawn, after the ongoing war produces its effects in parallel scaling down. Those with inflated military sizes cannot enter the passageways of settlements, so they must be slimmed down, regardless of the heavy cost to all of them, and to the innocents before, with, and after them. Here, we must reiterate the realistic equation governing this war: "Reducing sizes creates peace."
