The southern front seems headed for further escalation rather than de-escalation, which aligns with the threats made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has promised "significant" surprises from the border with Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah stated that it is the one preparing surprises for Israel. Amid this escalation, diplomatic efforts do not seem to find a path to resolution; the French initiative has not received any positive response, especially from the Israeli side of the conflict, while American efforts led by White House envoy Amos Hochstein appear to have stalled without achieving any actual breakthroughs.
Sources monitoring the situation comment on the failure of all international efforts to calm the situation in the south, stating that "Israel wants to eliminate the 'threats' posed by Hezbollah in the south, push it away from its borders, and target its missile capabilities, which is confirmed by the nature of the assassinations. In contrast, Hezbollah will not stop its shelling until the war in Gaza ends."
In an interview with the "Al-Anbaa" electronic newspaper, sources indicate that international efforts have so far succeeded in preventing the war from expanding and transforming into a comprehensive clash between the two parties without rules, but these efforts are not guaranteed as they have relatively failed in Rafah and were unable to prevent Israel from carrying out a ground operation in the city.
In this context, some observers expect the months of June and July to be very difficult, as during this time, Israel is expected to have concluded its battle in Rafah and focus on any potential extensive operations in Lebanon, racing against the drums of war alongside diplomatic efforts, with one succeeding and the other failing. They add: "If Hezbollah wants to avoid a scenario similar to Gaza, it may head towards certain settlements related to its presence at the southern border and linked to Lebanese internal politics and even Iran's policies. It may achieve some gains in this context and avoid a devastating war, but these settlements will only occur under intense pressure," according to "Al-Anbaa" electronic newspaper.
