It is essential to pause in evaluating the relationship between "Hezbollah" and "the Free Patriotic Movement" at the recent phone call made by the head of "the Coordination and Liaison Unit" in the party, Wafiq Safa, to both former Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Gibran Bassil, to congratulate them on behalf of the party leadership on the occasion of Christmas and New Year. This differs from previous occasions when the party used to send a leadership delegation on behalf of its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to offer congratulations to its allies.
The phone call from Safa to Aoun and Bassil comes at a time of political coldness in their relationship, stemming from their reluctance to support the party's backing of the candidacy of former MP Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the "Mardini" movement, for the presidency. In contrast, both allies have been calling for an agreement on another candidate, which was met with personal objections from Nasrallah. Bassil openly spoke about this after his recent uneasy meeting with Nasrallah, which was said to have been exhausting.
Rather than keeping the tense atmosphere of the meeting discreet, Bassil hastily "let the cat out of the bag," which aggravated his personal relationship with Nasrallah, especially since he took the initiative to promote his proposal to the President of the Parliament, Nabih Berri, who advised him to consult with his peers to gather their opinions before proceeding.
However, Bassil did not heed Berri's advice and escalated his position by insisting on searching for another candidate to cut off the path for Frangieh and Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, even though neither of them has announced their candidacies for the presidency, while previous election sessions did not present any supportive ballots for them.
Nevertheless, the chill that dominated the relationship between Bassil and Nasrallah did not lead to a complete deadlock in Bassil's communication with the party through Safa, who met with him away from the public eye, trying to keep the disagreement over the presidential options manageable.
"Al-Sharq Al-Awsat" learned that Bassil asked Safa whether the party is sticking to its support for Frangieh's candidacy while "the Free Patriotic Movement" refrains from endorsing it. Safa referred him back to Nasrallah, stating that he alone has the answer to his query, as his role is limited to coordination and conveying messages between him and the party leadership.
Safa did not engage in a discussion with Bassil regarding the political costs it would impose on the party if it insists on supporting Frangieh's candidacy; this assessment is up to the party leadership.
According to reports, President Aoun distanced himself from intervening to ease the tensions and renew communication between Bassil and Nasrallah, advising those who approached him on this matter to leave it to meetings between his son-in-law and Wafiq Safa, who is tasked by the party leadership with contacting him.
Additionally, Bassil knows well that the party remains firm on its stance supporting Frangieh's candidacy unless he makes a decision on his own not to run. Therefore, the party is not inclined to discuss, until further notice, a "Plan B" to support another candidate as long as Frangieh remains one of the key contenders for the presidency.
In this context, a prominent political source tracking the tension governing Bassil's relationship with the party asserts that Nasrallah is treating Frangieh's presidential nomination similarly to how he dealt with Aoun’s candidacy, refusing to look for an alternative candidate, even though the current political conditions differ from those that brought Aoun to the presidency.
In other words, according to the source, the party will find it challenging to disrupt election sessions to ensure Frangieh's presidency, as it did while maintaining its support for Aoun as president, although the party, after completing the maritime border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel through American mediation, has changed from what it was prior to that process.
Conversely, as the source notes, Bassil today is not the same Bassil who existed before the parliamentary elections that revealed his decline in the Christian street in favor of the "Lebanese Forces" party, making him compelled to consolidate his support within his community. This requires him to distinguish himself from the party and wager that his disagreement with his ally over Frangieh's candidacy can serve as a starting point for seeking political standing, without breaking ties with the party or cutting off communication, provided that it maintains understanding with the necessity of restoring its relationship in line with the newly emerging political reality in the country.
The political source highlights that President Aoun is currently calling for a reformation of his understanding with "Hezbollah" infused with a new political flavor, on the grounds that the existing terms are no longer adequate to cope with the current political phase. Otherwise, they would not have agreed to form a joint committee tasked with re-evaluating it for the purpose of developing and purifying it from flaws.
However, the same source criticizes Bassil, who aspires to be among the significant voters in the presidential elections, for failing to manage his political battle well when he decided to turn towards his opponents while President Aoun was attacking Speaker Berri. He contends that it would have been better for him not to rush to publicly showcase his disagreement with Nasrallah, as this might make it difficult for him to navigate his new discussions with his opponents.
He adds that Bassil's meeting with Frangieh ended without any notable results, as it focused on a general exchange of opinions and did not touch on the presidential elections due to Frangieh's insistence on not delving into the topic, even superficially. The source confirms that the Bassil-Frangieh meeting lasted about an hour, and the latter excused himself because it was time for bed without agreeing to reconnect.
Therefore, Bassil's relationship with "Hezbollah" will not recover its vitality because it has experienced a jolt without breaking, necessitating a restoration through a new formulation of the Mar Mikhael dialogue, as it is no longer suitable for all times. The question remains: How will the party respond to its ally? Will they reach an agreement, or will they find a way to manage their differences from a position of alliance, even in a new version?
