On the occasion of the seventeenth anniversary of the Mar Mikhael Understanding on February 6, 2006, a high-level delegation from Hezbollah visited President Michel Aoun in Rabieh. This visit occurred during a time of unprecedented political disagreements between the party and the Free Patriotic Movement. It marked the culmination of the goodwill efforts initiated by the party with Minister Bassil and continued with President Aoun. The question raised is whether this visit succeeded in providing the necessary oxygen boost to the aging understanding, which has begun to deteriorate due to the passage of time and the enormous problems confronting it. It resembles a sick man affected by old age despite being in the prime of life. Some even went so far as to state that the understanding died in 2016 when General Aoun assumed the presidency, where support ceased, leaving President Aoun alone to battle enemies as well as friends—struggling internally to present a vision of a nation and state, and externally to maintain Lebanon's strength and identity threatened by displacement and sanctions.
Certainly, the visit was necessary, at least in form, as everyone celebrates the occasion regardless of the state of joy or happiness. The celebration came to solidify the nostalgia for a bygone era, particularly for the early days when the understanding achieved what no other dual agreement has managed in national or political terms. However, there is a significant difference between nostalgia and reality, and regardless of the goodwill, matters end with their outcomes. Both parties, the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah, desire for the understanding to remain and endure and are attached to it, but what the Movement wants differs from what the party wants. The Movement seeks the understanding to develop as a crucial condition for its continuity, while the party views it as an existing reality that should be preserved with minimal losses and the least amount of agreement possible.
The understanding has outlined fundamental issues that deserve attention and analysis regarding what has been achieved and what has not. Stripping away the literary language in which the understanding was formulated and the political and national axioms it contained—such as dialogue, consensus democracy, and others—the issue of state-building remains paramount. According to the understanding, state-building necessitates the reliance on criteria of justice, merit, and integrity, among others. The independence of the judiciary stands as a core element and guarantee for building a state to ensure the functioning of institutions. Here arises the issue of combating corruption as a pivotal and major component for the regular operation of all administrations.
Throughout his years in power, President Aoun has tirelessly worked to address all of these issues, successfully establishing some, like a modern electoral law with its flaws that need correction, and addressing the issue of combating corruption through legal frameworks and legislation, especially the matter of forensic auditing. All these topics faced fierce internal opposition from the Movement's adversaries and primarily from the party's ally. The party could not effectively and decisively support the president in these endeavors, resulting in a persistent state of uncertainty, and it never provided unequivocal and significant support.
So, has anything changed since the Rabieh visit? Until now, and even as these lines were written, nothing tangible has changed. The party continues to attend the non-constitutional sessions called by the caretaker Prime Minister, disregarding the Movement's position and that of all Christian forces. The issue of the presidency remained unchanged, and the Movement had previously announced that the forthcoming presidential candidate must have standing within his Christian environment first, just as the Prime Minister should be Sunni and the Speaker of the House should be Shiite. Hence, a presidential candidate cannot be imposed on the Movement unless it aligns with the Movement’s will first. This has yet to crystallize in the party's stance regarding the presidential entitlement.
Indeed, the understanding is in intensive care... so will resuscitation be effective in alleviating the threat of its end?
