The Saudi-Iranian accord represents a setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to isolate Tehran, but only time will tell if it will also impede his attempts to engage with Riyadh or his plans to ultimately strike Iranian nuclear sites. Some experts state that what concerns Israel most is that the agreement, reached with Chinese mediation on Friday between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, suggests that the United States is making concessions in the region just when Netanyahu's government desperately needs support. An Israeli official, who requested anonymity, described the Saudi-Iranian accord as a predictable and preliminary process that should not hinder parallel advances toward normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, Israel has moved closer to the UAE despite Abu Dhabi's relations with Tehran.
Meanwhile, Israel continues an indirect campaign of threats to attack Iran alone if nuclear diplomacy reaches an impasse. Yet, all scenarios still depend on Washington, which sponsors and encourages Israeli-Arab peace agreements, and which is also a strong ally; if it opposes military action, Israel will not proceed. Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, stated, "This is a smart move by China and Iran to undermine Saudi-American and Saudi-Israeli normalization. It helps bring Tehran back into the fold and undermines US and Israeli efforts to build a regional coalition to confront Iran, which is nearing the development of nuclear weapons."
However, the Israeli-American alliance is experiencing tensions unrelated to the Saudi-Iranian accord. The Biden administration, which has yet to invite Netanyahu for a visit to the White House, has unusually expressed significant concern about his coalition of religious and nationalist parties. Netanyahu also faces unprecedented mass demonstrations in Israel protesting the judicial reform plan, which included pledges from some reserve Israeli Air Force pilots to skip a training day, indicating a shake in combat readiness and morale.
#### A Wake-Up Call
Amos Yadlin, former head of military intelligence during Netanyahu's tenure, stated that the Saudi-Iranian accord should serve as a wake-up call. Yadlin tweeted, "The government's focus on judicial reform, which tears the nation apart and weakens Israel in all aspects, reflects a deep disconnect between Netanyahu and international geopolitical trends." He accused Netanyahu of causing "extraordinary harm to our national security." He urged the cancellation of reforms that opponents describe as an attempt to extend government influence over the courts, alongside strengthening relations with Biden on how to establish Israeli-Saudi relations and address Iran's nuclear program jointly.
Yadlin was among the pilots who bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and one of the senior leaders during Israel's attack on a suspected Syrian reactor in 2007. His statements suggest he does not rely much on Israel's ability alone to confront Iran, which possesses remote and well-protected nuclear sites. Ehud Barak, former defense minister in Netanyahu's government and now a political critic, described Iran as "confidently moving toward becoming, in effect, a nuclear power." He wrote in the best-selling daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth that "cooperation between the US and Israel is strong in defense but weak in attack, and it needs to change." Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.
Eitan Ben David, former deputy national security adviser to Netanyahu, stated that Israel is building capabilities for unilateral military action as a necessity, giving secondary priority to the American partnership and potential Gulf Arab alliances. He added that Saudi Arabia remains aware of the US's key role in the region and the value of bilateral relations with Israel. He also mentioned to Kan Radio, "There is also a notable effort today to deepen and renew these relations with US participation, of course, but in a direct manner."
The New York Times reported earlier this week that Riyadh seeks to develop a civilian nuclear program and reduce restrictions on its acquisition of US weapons in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. Yadlin warned Netanyahu, who faces political challenges at home alongside his disagreement with the White House, against viewing such demands as achieving a Saudi peace plan. The Saudi government’s media office has not yet responded to Reuters' request for comment on The New York Times report. Saudi Arabia has linked any movement on its part toward normalizing relations with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
For its part, the White House appeared to downplay China’s involvement in the agreement reached between Tehran and Riyadh on Friday. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that the White House sees that internal and external pressures, including effective Saudi deterrence against attacks from Iran or its proxies, ultimately led Tehran to the negotiation table.
