The presidential vacancy has faded from the spotlight, giving way to the pressing issue of Syrian refugees.
The presidential file has regressed, as it became known, after the Qatari initiative reached a deadlock, awaiting the visit of a new envoy, possibly French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, following the postponement of the visit of the Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs to Lebanon. If this stagnation in the presidential issue is due to awaiting Paris's decision regarding Le Drian's next move, alongside the agreed-upon stance of the Quint countries on not prolonging this waiting period and the necessity of setting a timeline for the French mediation, the absence of any official French indication since the New York meeting regarding Le Drian's return to Beirut for a fourth visit raises additional questions about the outcome of this mediation. Furthermore, the lack of clarity surrounding the results of the recent Qatari envoy's visit has added to the ambiguity, especially amid reports suggesting the likely postponement of another visit by the Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, originally scheduled to begin today. If this is accurate, the implications of the postponement also do not suggest any positive change in the reality of external diplomatic moves related to the presidential crisis.
Accompanying this were media reports from Washington denying information or implications circulated by certain parties in Lebanon regarding a near visit to Beirut by senior U.S. energy advisor Amos Hochstein as part of a new effort to accomplish the land border demarcation file between Lebanon and Israel. Political sources noted that the resumption of French presidential envoy Le Drian’s mission in Lebanon is contingent upon achieving two main conditions: first, obtaining a prior willingness from the political parties to concede on the conditions and counterconditions obstructing the progress towards solving the presidential election crisis, and second, a commitment to discuss the third option he announced in his latest statement regarding his mission to resolve the crisis, after the failure of the conflicting parties to get either of their candidates elected in the last session to elect a president.
The sources indicated that if Le Drian does not receive clear responses from the differing parties regarding his proposals to resolve the crisis, it seems he will significantly delay and calmly study the upcoming options he will present to representatives of the Quint countries. Among these options could be an unannounced suspension of his mission until the regional and international political atmosphere clears up more, and until positive encouraging positions and factors emerge to avoid any setbacks or failures that could ultimately lead to the complete failure of his mission.
