Lebanon

Political Stalemate in Lebanon and Widespread Christian Rejection of Potential Army Chief Dismissal

Political Stalemate in Lebanon and Widespread Christian Rejection of Potential Army Chief Dismissal

Lebanon is experiencing a political stalemate as it awaits clarity on developments in Gaza and their implications for Lebanese support fronts. At that point, hopes are pinned on intensified international efforts, accompanied by Arab cooperation, to facilitate the completion of the Lebanese presidential election. This would involve narrowing significant differences among the parties, as reported by "Al-Anbaa" in Kuwait.

Until positive signals emerge from the Palestinian arena, which seems unlikely, internal Lebanese matters remain unchanged. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri's initiative to hold consultative meetings has been suspended, as a major faction led by the Lebanese Forces rejects Berri's request, stemming from a refusal to establish a precedent before the presidential elections that would subject the presidential election process to prior oversight before voting sessions.

However, political salons are witnessing discussions about a comprehensive package accompanying the presidential settlement, which would include an agreement on the designation of the prime minister and the distribution of ministerial shares, as well as the confirmed distribution of vacant first-category positions that have been unfilled for a long time.

In discussions among Lebanese authorities and Arab and foreign diplomats, there is a focus on the qualifications of both the President and the Prime Minister, with the intention that the criteria for the President will apply to the Prime Minister as well. This could involve choosing a presidential candidate from the "third option" and selecting a Prime Minister who is acceptable to all and not limited to a specific faction—unlike the exclusive designation of the prime minister from a club of former prime ministers, as happened following the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri after unprecedented protests in October 2019.

In this context, names are being circulated, including that of a former prime minister, Tammam Salam, and a group of new candidates distributed regionally among Tripoli, Beirut, Sidon, the Chouf region, and Baalbek.

Additionally, the issue of extending Army Commander Joseph Aoun's service for an additional year after reaching the legal retirement age has sparked significant discussion, with a large Christian faction supported by a major spiritual authority opposing the caretaker government's appointment to this sensitive position. They reject the vacancy of this role, arguing it risks disrupting the balance in managing the country's affairs from a sectarian perspective, especially after the vacancy of two significant Maronite positions: the presidency and the governorship of the Central Bank, according to "Al-Anbaa" in Kuwait.

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