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Do F-16 Aircraft Change the Battlefield Situation in Ukraine?

Do F-16 Aircraft Change the Battlefield Situation in Ukraine?

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has been pressing its Western partners to supply it with modern fighter jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sunday that Kyiv has received the first batch of these aircraft, which has been met with great enthusiasm both from Ukrainians and their supporting countries. These American-made jets are among the most significant weapons provided to Ukraine so far, as its forces strive to fend off the Russian army. Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs between 120 and 130 F-16 jets or other advanced fighters to achieve "parity" with Russia. He added, "Why do I say 120 or 130? The goal is to defend the airspace against 300 aircraft. That is the number of planes that Russia uses against Ukraine."

However, Ukraine's allies have only committed to supplying it with fewer than 100 F-16 aircraft so far, and they are likely to arrive in batches over several years, along with long training courses for pilots. Maintenance of these aircraft has become challenging as they require Russian spare parts and lack the capability to fend off Russian fighter jets from Ukrainian airspace. Kyiv considers that advanced Western aircraft are essential to support Ukrainian forces, which lack weaponry and numbers.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated, "The capabilities of the F-16s enable Ukraine to threaten more Russian targets and thus gain more strength on the battlefield and at the negotiating table." The report added, "The missing element in Ukraine's air superiority lies in the offensive air capability that F-16 fighters will begin to provide." These aircraft will also help bolster Ukraine's defenses against Russian strikes by intercepting missiles and drones and targeting Russian fighters that have struck Ukrainian sites in recent months.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies report indicated that the impact of these aircraft entering the battlefield will depend on several factors, including the types of weapons equipped on the aircraft, the proficiency levels of pilots, and potential constraints on their use imposed by Western supporters. Despite their advantages, the F-16 fighter jets will operate in challenging environments. Their pilots will encounter significant Russian air defenses, which will limit their options for attacking enemy positions, according to Justin Bronk from the British defense research institution RUSI.

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