A point to reiterate is that I perceive the events of October 7, 2023, as an uncalculated adventure by Hamas, a view shared by some Hamas leaders who have recently admitted this without being accused of endorsing "Zionist-American" ideologies.
I also believe Hamas has lost touch with the fundamentals of political strategy in recent years. Whether this originates internally or from external factors is unclear.
This was my stance until media outlets recently circulated details of a Hamas proposal that seemed to signal a return to strategic political thinking. Former U.S. hostage negotiator Adam Boehler reported that Hamas suggested a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire lasting from five to ten years during which they would disarm, with the U.S. and other countries ensuring the movement poses no military threat to Israel and refrains from future political participation.
I expected this claim to be denied by Hamas sources, yet I was surprised to see internal sources confirming that the leadership indeed proposed such a concept, not just for ten years, but potentially longer. It's been explained that Hamas was open to this option even before the war, and it had been suggested in previous years, with Israel being the rejecting party.
The idea of a long-term truce was first proposed by Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmad Yassin before his assassination, requiring Israel's withdrawal from territories occupied since 1967, releasing Palestinian detainees, and non-interference in Palestinian internal affairs. This proposal was also supported by Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, articulated to Reuters in 2004 before his assassination by Israel.
In 2007, Hamas leaders Khaled Mashal and the late Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel 19 years later, also supported this proposal, contingent upon establishing a Palestinian state along 1967 borders without recognizing Israel. The proposal resurfaced again in 2016 without leading to any outcomes.
Currently, it’s clear that Hamas faces an existential threat, possibly the threat of complete obliteration. This dire situation may have prompted the movement to revisit its previous negotiation strategies and return to political maneuvering, potentially to expose Israel on the global stage if it rejects this proposal, and possibly capitalizing on Donald Trump’s presidency, known for his deal-making approach despite substantial support for Israel.
Additionally, it is evident that Hamas’ popularity in Gaza has waned, as demonstrated by recent protests demanding their departure from governing Gaza. This demand may also exist within the movement itself, presumably from a pragmatic stance to rebuild.