Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, experiences a cautious calm today, Saturday, after being jolted by Israeli airstrikes on its southern suburb yesterday, Friday. These strikes breached the ceasefire agreement held since November. The move raises questions about whether Israel has changed its strategy regarding Lebanon.
Israeli officials have described Friday’s attack on Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut as a "strategic shift." Israel might have aimed to "change the equation" in Lebanon with this move. However, a recent Israeli report claims that while Israel's strategy remains to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding, it will adapt based on emerging threats, according to the Israeli newspaper "Maariv."
The report highlighted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz quickly stated, "What happened before October 7 will not happen again," emphasizing that the strike on Beirut was a message to those underestimating the new situation. This refers to the two rockets alleged by Israel to have been launched from Lebanon, a claim Hezbollah denies completely.
**Intelligence Details**
They also affirmed that the Israeli army would attack any threat to Israel, ensuring the safety of residents in the north. The report mentioned that the Defense Minister championed the attack on Beirut, viewing it as essential for ensuring the security of residents in the Galilee, following the principle of "Beirut for the Galilee."
The attack came as a result of pressure from Katz to create a new deterrent equation, especially since the Israeli army used recent intelligence to identify Hezbollah targets in Beirut. The strikes targeted a building used by Hezbollah, demolishing its basement, which allegedly contained an arsenal, according to Israeli sources.
**Change in the Equation?**
The newspaper noted that Lebanon is a sovereign state with a government, army, and security forces. It argues that recent Israeli escalation will not negate the old equation and suggests that Israel will respond to fire from Lebanon with "measured reactions" specifically targeting Hezbollah assets, without harming the Lebanese government or its official institutions.
The potential for a change in this equation arises if Israel perceives a greater threat. On Friday, Israel bombed Beirut's southern suburb, Hezbollah’s stronghold, for the first time since the ceasefire last November, citing rocket fire from southern Lebanon towards the north.
Despite these developments, Hezbollah denied any rocket fire towards Israel, affirming its commitment to the ceasefire agreement and asserting that Israel is fabricating attacks. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army reported locating the rocket launch site in the Qaouqiya al-Jisr area of Nabatieh, north of the Litani River, and has begun an investigation to identify the perpetrators.
Since the U.S.-French-mediated ceasefire agreement on November 27, 2024, Israeli forces have conducted multiple airstrikes in Lebanon, alleging they target Hezbollah sites. Israel has also resisted withdrawing from five strategic hills in southern Lebanon, despite the agreement's provision for complete withdrawal.