Are U.S. and Israeli Pressures Pushing Lebanon Towards Another Civil War?

With rising security and political tensions in Lebanon, fears are growing that international and regional pressures to disarm Hezbollah could spark renewed internal conflict. This comes amidst deep economic and institutional crises that cast doubt on the country's ability to assert its sovereignty.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Lebanese government faces increasing pressures from the U.S., Israel, and internal Lebanese factions to confront Hezbollah. The aim is to implement the terms of the latest ceasefire agreement with Israel, which includes gradually restoring state control and disarming Hezbollah.

The report highlights Lebanon's fragile state institutions, which struggle to provide electricity for more than a few hours daily. Meanwhile, the national currency's value has plummeted, making the dollar the preferred medium of exchange. The Lebanese army, despite being a prominent national institution, ranks second in power and influence to Hezbollah.

Plans to disarm Hezbollah are not new; they emerged after Israel's last war against Hezbollah in 2024. However, the initiative stalled as Hezbollah steadfastly refused to give up its arms. The organization, representing a significant portion of Lebanon's Shiite population, remains among the world's most powerful non-state armed groups.

The regional conflict has complicated the Lebanese scene. Iran demands that any ceasefire in its confrontations with Israel and the U.S. includes Lebanon. Recently, exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran following an Israeli raid on Beirut's southern suburbs tested the fragile truce.

Israeli military operations, both ground and air, have displaced over a million people within Lebanon. Many of these people, primarily Shiites, now live in temporary camps or tents in Beirut streets, facing ostracization and fears that their presence may provoke further Israeli strikes.

While popular criticism of Hezbollah's role in dragging the country into a new war grows, the group, having incurred significant losses in the last war with Israel, appears more defiant, openly urging Lebanese to protest government policies.

The report quotes retired Lebanese General Khalil Helou, known for opposing Hezbollah, stating that while everyone knows how attempts to forcibly disarm Hezbollah might start, no one can predict how they would end.

Lebanon's modern history is rife with recurring crises and regional and sectarian conflicts that have hindered state sovereignty. The report revisits the civil war from 1975 to 1990, when militias divided Beirut with contact lines and armed barricades.

The Journal also recounts Israel's 1982 invasion targeting the PLO, reaching Beirut and occupying parts of southern Lebanon until 2000.

Many Lebanese see current developments as echoes of past turmoil, marked by ongoing Israeli airstrikes, sectarian divides, and Hezbollah's renewed military activities.

A field visit highlighted the social divide. In Beirut's upscale Zaitunay Bay, the affluent continue life in luxury, while mere meters away, hundreds of mostly Shiite displaced persons live in makeshift camps.
The report details sectarian-based discrimination, with some landlords refusing to rent to displaced persons. In contrast, a Sunni mosque in Kantari has opened its doors to provide aid.

Imam Emad Sobh noted concerns among worshippers about hosting those from Hezbollah-supporting communities, warning of being targeted if Hezbollah affiliates are present.

Unlike the 2024 war, today's sectarian divisions are sharper. Unexpectedly, some Sunnis now express support for Israel's war against Hezbollah, a previously unfamiliar stance.

The Lebanese state's inability to challenge Hezbollah has diminished public trust in official institutions, with rising violence outside legal frameworks. Some Christian areas near Beirut have seen right-wing militia re-emergences reminiscent of past conflicts.

Israel has declared its determination to continue targeting Hezbollah, even outside traditional strongholds. A recent strike on the Christian town of Ain Saadeh killed Layla Mouawad, a Lebanese Forces Party official opposed to Hezbollah, among others.

Despite Israeli assertions that it targeted a Hezbollah command center, the civilian toll heightened local tensions, with reports of Shiite families being evicted and gun displays at Mouawad's funeral.

An extensive Israeli air raid on April 8 targeted 100 sites in Lebanon within 90 seconds, striking both upscale and tourist areas, exacerbating Lebanese fears and anxiety.

Lebanon was already nearing collapse years ago, following a banking crisis and the devastating Beirut port explosion. The 2024 conflict weakened Hezbollah's influence, enabling a political reshuffling with Joseph Aoun’s election supported by U.S. efforts to bolster Lebanese sovereignty.

The Lebanese army began operations to confiscate Hezbollah sites in the south, praised by the U.S. and Israel and occasionally aided by Israeli intelligence. However, these efforts slowed as Hezbollah rebuilt its military capabilities.

Hezbollah's media relations head, Youssef Zain, claimed Israel aimed to prevent Hezbollah's recovery, yet the group was prepared to endure the consequences of rebuilding.

Despite government bans on Hezbollah's military involvement alongside Iran, these directives have failed.

Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem called disarmament an "extermination" of the group, firmly opposing this path.

Despite U.S. support for the Lebanese army, confronting Hezbollah risks fracturing the military's unity, which represents Lebanon's diverse sects and serves as a stabilizing force.

The military is reluctant to appear as executing an Israeli agenda, with some soldiers lacking motivation to fight fellow Lebanese, even those in Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has regained some strength despite thousands of Israeli strikes since November 2024, utilizing new combat methods, including fiber-optic guided drones, posing a growing challenge to the Israeli military.

Analysts warn that Israeli forceful disarmament attempts may lead to a prolonged and complex conflict, potentially resulting in another occupation of Lebanon.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. leads political and security dialogues between Israel and Lebanon without Hezbollah's direct participation. Rare direct talks are hosted in Washington, fostering security coordination between the Lebanese and Israeli militaries.

Lebanese officials revealed to the Journal that President Trump once proposed a meeting between Presidents Aoun and Netanyahu, which Aoun declined to avoid internal political fallout.

President Aoun recognizes that Israel seeks secure northern borders and a sole Lebanese military presence on the boundary.

Lebanon's current plan involves Israeli withdrawal from certain areas with the Lebanese army controlling them, already underway in the southern town of Debin.

Government circles see opportunities post-war to rebuild state authority, especially as Hezbollah's image wanes among some Shiites due to widespread losses and intelligence exposure to Israeli operations.

The Journal concludes that Lebanon's path remains arduous, evident even in daily governance challenges. A Beirut incident in April underscored enforcement disparities, raising questions about selective law application.

Lebanese MP Waddah Al-Sadiq warned of rising public discontent over perceived biased law enforcement, signaling potential for lawlessness if such imbalances persist.

Ultimately, Lebanon faces a dangerous crossroads as sectarian tensions and escalating political and security strains test the country's fragile stability. Observers caution that all components for civil unrest are present, fueling divisions across Lebanese society.