The US intelligence community has assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to test NATO's cohesion by executing a limited attack on one of its member states in the coming years, marking a shift from previous assessments that suggested Moscow would avoid provoking the alliance as long as the conflict in Ukraine persists.
According to the Wall Street Journal, US intelligence believes potential scenarios could include cyberattacks or hybrid operations conducted by unidentified forces, possibly escalating to a limited ground incursion, with risks expected to climb between now and 2029.
American officials, as reported, note that Putin might be more willing to take such risks amid increasing pressures on Russia, including ongoing Ukrainian strikes, slowed battlefield gains, and growing domestic expectations for a victory in the war.
The report also ties this assessment to rising concerns about American ammunition stockpiles, pointing to a potential shortage in several key systems and munitions, including Patriot interceptors, THAAD, Stinger systems, along with PrSM and ATACMS missiles, following years of military support for Ukraine and high military spending, such as during the 'Epic Fury' operation against Iran.
Conversely, both the Pentagon and the White House have dismissed these concerns. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell labeled reports of ammunition shortages as "incorrect," while the White House assured that the United States holds a sufficient stockpile of munitions to meet all its strategic goals.