Israel is entering a sensitive regional phase as the U.S. administration pushes for simultaneous resolutions involving Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. A former Israeli intelligence official warns that this could directly threaten Israel's military freedom and its ability to re-engage in conflict if these proposed agreements fall apart.
According to a column by Brigadier General (Res.) Hanan Gefen, former head of Unit 8200, published in the Israeli outlet 'Maariv,' the upcoming period demands 'patience and firmness' from Israeli leadership and the public. He argues that the 'expanded' U.S. policy aims at stability but effectively restricts Israel's capacity to resume combat or self-defense.
Gefen notes that the U.S. is currently employing a multi-faceted approach to address regional crises, utilizing economic tools, arms reduction initiatives deemed threatening by Washington, and increased involvement of international forces.
This approach, while appearing as diplomatic outreach, practically nudges Israel into a path where its military freedom is gradually being curtailed.
Gefen highlights a recurring U.S. pattern across various fronts. Washington begins negotiations with firm stances but tends to make concessions on critical points as talks drag on—a process that might lead to arrangements Israel cannot accept.
Regarding Gaza, the writer expresses specific concerns over American and international efforts pushing for reconstruction projects before the disarmament of Hamas is ensured.
The proposed 'alternative management mechanism' allows Hamas to maintain a low profile initially, but the group would eventually rebuild its capabilities, retaining significant influence over the population and preventing other forces from entering the strip.
On the northern front, Gefen points out that Iranian officials link Hezbollah's survival to their broader negotiations with the Americans.
He describes it as 'worrisome and dangerous' that senior U.S. officials, including, as mentioned in the article, 'Vice President Steve Witkoff,' show an inclination to link the Iran deal to a ceasefire with Lebanon, providing Iran direct leverage over Israeli security.
When it comes to Iran, the scene reflects a gloomy picture of U.S. foreign policy, according to the writer. The Trump administration, he claims, is at a crucial crossroad.
The negotiation process with what he calls the 'divided Iranian regime' embarrasses the American negotiators. High-ranking officials, starting with the President, repeatedly claim that negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz will conclude quickly, only for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to promptly issue escalatory demands for U.S. withdrawal, compensations, and lifting of all sanctions.
Militarily, Gefen notes re-emerging questions about war aims amid reports of shortages in attack and intercept missiles.
The writer adds that Iran has recovered its capacities, making clear threats against Gulf states and any entity aiding the U.S., coinciding with Tehran's ongoing actions against commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and using Yemeni and Iraqi factions against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.
Focusing on regional reactions to Iran's moves, Gefen observes the emergence of a defensive alliance between Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, known as the 'Mecca Alliance,’ which he sees as a strategic counteraction.
He believes the choice of the alliance’s name was intentional, sending a clear message of the changing lines of confrontation in the regional Sunni-Shiite struggle.
In conclusion, Gefen suggests that Israel is caught in a complex matrix of regional and international interests, facing pressure to agree to compromises that 'appease Hamas, embrace Hezbollah, and hesitate with Iran.'
He calls for building a 'steel wall' against these pressures, asserting patience and firmness alongside Israel’s independence in striking its adversaries when necessary as the way to secure its future in the region.
He ends by stressing, 'We must not become a bargaining chip in others’ negotiations,' reflecting deep concerns within some Israeli security circles that American-regional settlements could impose long-term constraints on Israel’s military freedom.