The Middle East region is witnessing a gathering and thickening of many clouds. The deadlock in the negotiations regarding the nuclear agreement. The lack of progress in Iranian-Saudi talks. Attempts to improve Saudi-American relations. Israeli military maneuvers on the southern borders. Air maneuvers in Cyprus. These events are intensifying, indicating that the region is entering a new phase of consolidating cards, which could open the area to dangerous or explosive scenarios. Additionally, Israel continues its security operations inside Iran, carrying out four assassinations of key officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and in the Iranian missile development project.
#### Hezbollah's Anticipation
Lebanon stands at a crossroads of anticipation. Hezbollah has committed itself to preventing Israel from exploring for oil in the area it considers disputed. The process of securing the vessel and starting drilling requires three months. It is not yet known how Hezbollah will respond to the issue. Will the pressure be political, aimed at urging the President and the government to send a new message to amend Decree 6433 and adopt Line 29 in Lebanon's favor instead of Line 23? This alone would refer the matter to the disputed area as recognized by the United Nations, obliging Israel to cease any operations there. Another possibility in this context is that the U.S. envoy for global energy security, Amos Hochstein, could move quickly towards Lebanon to seek a formula that satisfies both parties.
#### Regional Explosion
Hezbollah is still watching. It supports the Lebanese state, but if it does not take any serious position, it may resort to what it deems appropriate, especially if the drilling vessel exceeds the disputed area. This is an action that could ignite the region, amidst regional deadlock. While Lebanon considers the Line 29 area as the disputed zone, for Israel, the disputed area is defined by Frederick Hof, which is beyond Line 23 towards the north.
#### Hezbollah's Readiness
Hezbollah does not hide its naval capabilities and readiness to confront any such attempts. The announcement of the party's Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, during the July war about targeting the Israeli military ship at sea is recalled. At that time, Hezbollah demonstrated military missile capabilities that surprised everyone. Some time ago, Hezbollah announced that it had more surprises in this regard. The Israelis had stated years ago that Hezbollah was working on developing and enhancing its naval missile capabilities. Israel believes that the party has platforms and sites for naval missiles near Beirut Airport and in the Ouzai area, which was the launch point for the missile in 2006 that hit the Israeli ship. These missiles have a primary mission to protect Beirut at sea, especially the southern suburbs. Furthermore, the party has naval capabilities in the south, and Hezbollah has previously declared its ability to engage in naval confrontations with Israel. It should also not be overlooked that the party can operate drones over the sea. A previous experiment involved launching a drone from Naqoura towards the occupied airspace, which returned safely.
