After seven sessions failed to secure a quorum and elect a president, it has become essential for the opposition forces to reevaluate everything they have done so far and consider new options. Of course, new options do not mean changing the name of the candidate, but rather continuing to support the nomination of MP Michel Moawad. His ongoing personal fight in this battle has become a sacrifice related to not leaving the field to emptiness, but rather continuing with the opposition until an agreement is reached on a different strategy aimed at emerging from the tunnel of potential protracted vacancy until the presidential clock for "Hezbollah" strikes, as it retains its parliamentary bloc and its affiliated blocs behind the white paper, waiting for the appropriate timing both domestically and regionally.
"Hezbollah" is leading a campaign to regain control of the presidential chair in a manner fundamentally different from 2016. The party wants to organize its internal affairs before publicly announcing support for "the Head of the Marada" Sleiman Frangieh. This waiting not only pertains to internal organization but also to the regional circumstances favorable to Iran, considering that the presidential card is an additional leveraging tool that can be used in negotiations with the United States, which, until now, has paid little attention to anything concerning the Lebanese file.
In managing its battle for control over Baabda, "Hezbollah" is engaging in some obvious maneuvers: distracting this political or religious authority with the ploy of entrenching discussions around various names. When serious discussions begin, the party rejects names, claiming that its allies, including MP Gebran Bassil, refuse others. The cycle continues until "Hezbollah" decides that the timing is appropriate. At that point, there will be no trace of Bassil's opposition, Frangieh's resignation, or any other ally's dissent; everyone will proceed after "Hezbollah" has rewarded them with a tailored gift, and the way will be opened for the session, the quorum, and the election.
After these theatrical sessions, many knowledgeable individuals have come to believe that "Hezbollah" is playing a game of wasted time and does not want to elect a president at this moment. This belief is echoed by some who have negotiated with "Hezbollah" either directly or indirectly. The party has lured some of these people into proposing names, only to dismiss each name with a veto. Most of the names proposed are practically classified outside the alignments, categorized as centrist or gray candidates, yet were still rejected, reinforcing the idea that the presidential election is postponed and not on "Hezbollah’s" agenda.
Based on this established fact until further notice, the opposition forces are collectively studying alternative options they should adopt during this forced vacuum due to the use of arms. These options range from raising the political ceiling to proposing certain steps in the parliament that the blocs can collectively adopt, aiming to exert pressure to break this stalemate, knowing that breaking MP Rami Fanj’s position in the politicized constitutional council will weaken the opposition forces, while providing "Hezbollah" and its allies with an additional MP that enhances their numerical dominance in the 2022 Parliament.
