Lebanon

Title: The Flood: Presidency and Displacement Swept Away Amidst Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Title: The Flood: Presidency and Displacement Swept Away Amidst Efforts to Prevent Escalation

The "Al-Aqsa Flood" has eclipsed all other internal concerns, leading to a silence regarding the presidential election and the issue of Syrian refugees. The focus has shifted to the southern region, where the Lebanese woke up to an artillery and missile attack launched by the resistance on three Israeli positions in the occupied Shebaa Farms and Kfarshouba Hills, alongside Israeli shelling of the surrounding area. This sparked predictions of an expansion in the ongoing war in the occupied Palestinian territories between Israel and Palestinian resistance factions in Gaza and its vicinity, extending to the southern Lebanese front.

All circles tracked the developments of "Al-Aqsa Flood," which has troubled Israel and inflicted a major defeat upon it, unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, due to the human, material, and moral losses it incurred, despite the destructive bombardment it unleashed on Gaza, the stronghold of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whose fighters managed to storm fortified Israeli military sites and settlements in the Gaza perimeter.

Amid expectations that the war could extend beyond the occupied Palestinian territories toward Lebanon, Syria, and others—especially following the attack by the "Islamic Resistance," led by Hezbollah, on Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms and Kfarshouba Hills, and the subsequent intermittent Israeli shelling of empty Lebanese areas—communications have intensified at all levels, locally, regionally, and internationally, to halt the fighting amidst ongoing Israeli threats.

Informed sources closely following the southern situation told "Al-Jumhouria" that after the resistance targeted Israeli sites in Kfarshouba Hills, international and Arab contacts were made with Lebanon over the past two days through Prime Minister Najib Mikati to understand how Hezbollah would respond to the unfolding military and political developments in Gaza and whether it would broaden the battlefield from Gaza to southern Lebanon. However, the party's response was that it was "impossible to inform any local or foreign party about what the party is thinking or how it will act in this open battle with the Israeli entity." Nevertheless, the party is closely monitoring the course of the battle in Gaza, its outcomes, and future developments.

The sources stated that Hezbollah's estimates suggest that the ongoing battle in Palestine will be prolonged, and that Israel is incapable of taking any substantial action to alter the new equation established after the "Gaza Flood" operation, neither in Gaza nor in Lebanon. What it is capable of doing is more airstrikes, destruction, and killing in Gaza and the West Bank.

The sources added: "If the Israelis consider any ground invasion of Gaza or any military action in Lebanon, they will very carefully consider, firstly, that achieving any field breach on the ground in Gaza is difficult according to the data. Secondly, the response of the collapsing home front due to the presence of the bodies of the dead in settlements and streets. Thirdly and finally, they are observing the realization of the concept of 'Unity of the Resistance Axis' extending from Gaza to Lebanon and Syria and perhaps to other countries."

The sources indicated that Hezbollah’s shelling of Israeli sites in Shebaa and Kfarshouba affirmed the notion of unity of fronts, prompting Israel to respond by shelling open areas in the hills and a resistance tent surrounding the town of Ghajar, which the resistance rebuilt within hours.

Moreover, sources informed "Al-Jumhouria" that the resistance's targeting of Israeli sites in Shebaa Farms and Kfarshouba Hills has baffled the Israelis and prevented them from responding to specific targets in the Lebanese areas covered by Resolution 425 along the border from Naqoura to the farms under the control of UNDOF operating in the occupied Golan Heights.

In contrast to the developments of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, there has been a deep governmental silence, with no statements recorded from the Prime Minister or any senior officials regarding ongoing events and their potential repercussions on the Lebanese scene, amid anticipation for Hezbollah's response which recorded its first reactions yesterday morning through a limited military operation targeting three Israeli sites in the Shebaa and Kfarshouba areas, with very limited consequences.

Ministerial sources reported that no plans for a cabinet meeting have been discussed to date, and ongoing communications regarding current events have not addressed any idea in this regard.

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