Despite the international storm of rejection against the invasion of Rafah city in southern Gaza Strip, and amid criticisms and tensions even with America, Israel's closest ally, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on the invasion plan. He reiterated yesterday his commitment to storming Rafah, noting that civilians would be able to flee to various areas in the northern part of the Strip. Meanwhile, approximately one and a half million Palestinians are left wondering about their fate after seeking refuge in the city for safety since the outbreak of the war in the Strip about six months ago. They are also questioning the timing of the anticipated invasion.
A Jordanian security expert believes that Netanyahu's campaign against Rafah has already begun with the intensification of bombings on the province over the past two days. Mohammed Al-Qasim Al-Hamoud, a policy and security studies advisor in Amman, stated to the Arab World News Agency (AWP): "He has begun bombarding Rafah and carrying out systematic destruction by the Israeli army against the city of Rafah, disregarding international warnings or the red lines set by President Joe Biden." Netanyahu's office has announced approval for the Rafah operation plans, and the army has been preparing for it for a while now.
However, he added that other factors may determine the extent of the Rafah invasion, saying, "It depends on Netanyahu and his ability to endure internal Israeli pressure or his ability to challenge Biden." He pointed out to daily protests in Israeli streets demanding the acceptance of a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, which has so far been futile. He also noted the U.S. administration's clear refusal for the Israeli army to enter Rafah and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s discussions of "alternatives" with Israeli officials. He added, "There is also the extent of Netanyahu's willingness to bear Israel's international isolation."
Furthermore, he mentioned that the Israeli army may need more than two weeks to evacuate Rafah's one and a half million people. In practical terms, evacuating 1.5 million individuals confined within a limited geographical area is a highly difficult operation that requires much longer time than two weeks. Not to mention that relocating this population density elsewhere would require infrastructure preparations, which are currently not available within Gaza's borders.
On the other hand, a Lebanese politician suggested that Netanyahu and his government, which he describes as extremist, "have become more aggressive in pursuing this battle in defiance of anyone who does not align with their course in this war." The politician, who spoke from Beirut on the condition of anonymity, stated, "Not engaging in this battle now might be seen as an Israeli retreat under American and international pressure and a setback to their project. Therefore, this increases the possibility of their entering into such a battle." Nevertheless, he considered that the timing "remains the biggest question mark."
For his part, Jordanian political researcher Yasser Qateeshat believes that the Israelis do not genuinely care about the population or geographical space. However, he pointed out another argument that might deter Netanyahu from initiating the operation. He said, "Entering Rafah means that the war will end, and there will be no justification for its continuation. Netanyahu ties the decision to stop the war to entering Rafah, which he sees as Hamas's last stronghold and command site." He further added, "The second point is that the captives held by Hamas are currently in Rafah. This is the perception or narrative propagated by the occupation. The longer the psychological war regarding entering Rafah lasts, the longer the war will continue, and this is what Netanyahu's administration seeks."
This comes as the United States has been attempting for weeks to dissuade Israel from a ground invasion of Rafah, recently urging it to consider alternative plans that may include a limited incursion into some areas, provided that shelters are secured for displaced civilians. Netanyahu has confirmed that he will proceed with this operation regardless of Washington's approval. Additionally, it is expected that the U.S. administration will dispatch American "generals" to meet with Israeli leaders in Tel Aviv in order to participate in formulating the operational plans, according to Israel's Channel 13 news reported today, Thursday.
