A new poll reveals that the Republican Party is closing the gap with the Democrats ahead of the midterm Congressional elections, contradicting earlier predictions favoring significant Democratic gains in the House.
Conducted by The Washington Post in collaboration with Ipsos, the poll shows 48% of registered voters support Democrats for control of the House, while 45% back Republicans.
This marks a slight decline from a May poll, which indicated 49% support for Democrats compared to 44% for Republicans, according to a joint survey by ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos.
The poll suggests Democrats are not approaching the lead they held before the 2018 midterms, when they were ahead by about 10 percentage points in what was termed the “blue wave.”
Neera Tanden, President and CEO of the Center for American Progress, cautioned against overestimating a Democratic sweep, noting on the platform 'X': “Anyone expecting a landslide in November should reconsider.”
Historically, the party in the White House tends to lose House seats during midterms, a pattern seen in nearly every cycle since 1938, with only two exceptions.
This time, Democrats face internal divides between the traditional and more progressive factions, along with a political identity crisis after losing the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump.
Conversely, analysts suggest Republicans possess more substantial financial resources for their campaigns, boosting hopes of reducing their losses or even reversing the trend, despite the widespread belief that Democrats remain favored to regain House control.
The poll indicates that a modest Democratic victory is the most likely scenario, rather than the previously anticipated major win.
According to the RealClearPolitics average, Democrats have a 4.7 percentage point lead in the general Congressional vote.
The poll also shows registered voters believe Republicans better represent them on key issues, with 41% in favor compared to 40% for Democrats, and 39% think Republicans are better suited to manage the economy, against 35% for Democrats.
On a positive note for Democrats, the poll reveals they hold a ten-point lead among voters certain to participate in November, reflecting enthusiasm levels similar to those before 2018.
However, Republicans remain concerned about voter turnout, particularly without President Trump on the ballot, and ongoing internal party disputes over key issues, including the conflict with Iran.
The poll further shows President Trump’s approval ratings are negative on major topics troubling voters before the elections, including the economy, the conflict with Iran, and immigration.