Israel is navigating a politically sensitive period as elections approach, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing increasing challenges that threaten his political standing. These challenges have gone beyond military options and regional policies to also include personal corruption charges involving him and his family. As his popularity wanes, new names emerge in the political landscape, notably former Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, who polls show gaining traction among Netanyahu's contenders. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid continue to cement their positions in the race for prime minister.
However, Netanyahu's potential departure does not necessarily spell a shift in Israeli policy. Many of his possible successors agree on key security and strategic issues, such as maintaining military superiority, confronting regional adversaries, and expanding the Abraham Accords, though they differ in their approach.
In an effort to stabilize his position and regain initiative, Netanyahu leans on his security rhetoric and military escalation, particularly towards southern Lebanon. This strategy, however, is incurring political and diplomatic costs for Israel amid increasing international criticism. Consequently, the upcoming election seems more about who will lead Israel than a clash of differing political agendas. Will Netanyahu manage to alter the dynamics, or is Eizenkot on the brink of succession?
Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, tells "CENTRAL": "In Israel, diverse daily opinion polls often reveal similar trends. Until recently, Benny Gantz appeared the likely prime minister, and now Eizenkot's name surfaces. Yet, leading in polls doesn’t guarantee the capability to form a government, leaving the future of Israeli governance post-elections uncertain."
Nader notes, "Should Eizenkot replace Netanyahu, leading to a potential shift in government policy, especially towards Iran and Lebanon, remains doubtful, as these are strategic issues tied to Israel's security."
Adding that "recent polls show that a frontrunner one day may not lead the next." The Times of Israel currently positions Netanyahu as the frontrunner, with Eizenkot unable to secure a majority, highlighting that leading in polls doesn’t equate to governability. The key question remains whether a candidate can form a government.
Explaining Netanyahu’s consistent popularity, Nader attributes it to a stable support base of around 30%, which rises or falls with political circumstances or scandals, but remains solid. As the longest-serving prime minister, having strengthened ties with the U.S. and transitioned Israel’s economy towards knowledge, Netanyahu maintains an appealing image for voters seeking to preserve these accomplishments.
Nader concludes, "Netanyahu's prospects cannot be dismissed, and predicting his loss or victory is challenging given the intense race. Concerning Lebanon, expect harsher stances from both sides during election periods, as a significant Israeli majority, over 70%, supports ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. Without U.S. pressure, Netanyahu wouldn’t have engaged in the framework agreement or reduced war efforts. However, the desire for continued conflict persists among many Israelis, making Netanyahu comfortable in using this as an electoral card, bolstered by Hezbollah's retreat from Ali Taher Hill."