Sources in the shipping and maritime security sectors indicate that ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is free of mines could delay the return of shipping activities to normal by weeks, even after an agreement was reached to reopen the strategic waterway.
Evaluations by five Western maritime security sources suggest that the clearance of mines using conventional mine sweepers and advanced unmanned submersibles could take between 40 and 50 days. Only then might insurance, shipping, and oil companies regain enough confidence to navigate the area.
A recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration highlights the critical importance of every barrel, given that global stockpiles are nearing their lowest levels since at least 2003.
Though some ships have managed to pass through the besieged waterway in the past few weeks, shipping industry officials continue to urge caution following the announcement last Sunday of a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict and open the strait.
Jacob Larsen, Head of Safety and Security at BIMCO, stated, "We still consider ship passage at this stage to pose significant risks."
He added, "The risk of mines in the region remains a concern, presently and for the foreseeable future, and there must be mine-free paths available."
Need for Assurance
The exact number of mines Iran might have planted in the strait—through which previously 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed daily—remains unclear.
During the conflict, Tehran sought to assert control over the waterway and threatened to deploy naval mines without explicitly confirming whether its forces had indeed planted any.
The U.S. has previously acknowledged mines as a threat and claimed to have targeted Iranian mine-laying vessels.
In a statement during a Foreign Relations Committee hearing on June 2, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned that Iran had planted mines in substantial parts of Hormuz's international waters without elaborating further.
On June 11, the German Navy issued a memo, citing information from U.S. and British naval forces, stating that mines were present at four locations around the strait, although Germany had not verified these sites.
The mere possibility of mines deters companies from navigating the strait. Shipping officials note the value of a supertanker and its crude oil cargo can be close to $300 million, underscoring the need for insurers and oil and tanker companies to obtain assurances of safe passage before attempting transit through the strait.
Shipping Activity Remains Low
When asked last week about the number and locations of mines, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command said he could not publicly reveal specific details due to operational security concerns.
He added that U.S. military efforts continue to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is completely free of naval mines laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, while the White House has not responded to requests for comment.
On May 30, Oman’s Maritime Security Centre advised ships passing on the Omani side of the strait to exercise caution after detecting a "suspected floating mine."
In anticipation of a potential mine clearance operation, Britain, France, and Germany have deployed warships and mine-sweeping vessels to the Middle East.
Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime security firm Dryad Global, remarked that even after U.S. strikes intended to diminish Iran's military capabilities, including mine-laying ships and stocks, it is estimated that Tehran still possesses up to a thousand naval mines.
He added, "If a minefield is discovered, eliminating the threat could take weeks or even months."